Starting from somewhere around the middle of 2011 when the mood of a nation was captured by a frail old man Anna Hazare the anger and frustration of the voters, especially the youngsters peaked around mid-2012 into a more visible, organised movement against corruption. By end 2012 the Delhi rape jolted every parent out of their TV couches and as 2013 dawned they were backing their kids, grandkids to go out and stand up against injustice, corruption, poverty, communalism, etc. From then on events speeded such that the Cong and UPA just didn’t have a clue what to do. They were trying to climb a speeding train while the BJP and Modi had already boarded the train and the only option was to get crushed underneath the juggernaut. The euphoria was high, and Modi tapped into that with 3 masterstrokes. 1) He was a gifted orator and could catch the imagination of the crowd and communicate brilliantly 2) He spoke the language of development which appealed to every voter 3) He talked of a dream which was sold at a huge premium.
The downside
was that the expectations and the bar was set so high that anybody with a
modicum of understanding India would know that it was herculean and difficult
to achieve. The biggest error, if one may call it that, is that Modi seemed to look
at 2024 elections as a target while the actual election was in 2019. In what
can be called a Freudian slip he told a student in an interaction on children’s
day in 2014 that he can dream about becoming PM in 2024. Nobody least of all
Modi would say that he has met these expectations but given the challenges, the
limited time the Modi govt has performed remarkably well as we can see here and
not in any order.
Defence:
It was clear
that India, including I dare say the ABV govt, following the Nehruvian policy had
always pussyfooted and vacillated when it came to reacting to a terror strike.
Even if they did, they preferred to keep quiet – that’s like winking at the
girl you love in darkness. Modi changed that normal with surgical strikes in
Myanmar, Pakistan and openly announcing it in a presser giving little chance to
Pakistan for a narrative. With the air strikes he further raised the bar and
called the nuclear bluff and told the world that business was not as usual.
He showed
courage in closing the Rafale deal by making it a Govt to Govt deal which even
the previous govts could have done if they believed that defence preparedness
was dangerously inadequate. Similar deals with USA, Russia meant that a
humongous number of decisions were taken which were languishing for decades. That
some of these may actually fructify even post 2024 is a fact but he broke the
chain and opened the doors.
While nobody
can claim to have got everything right or accomplished everything 5 years is
too short in defence and his efforts will be remembered by future generations.
Strategy:
Talking to
many people - and unfortunately, I wish I could expand more on this – the one
thing they have all said about the man is – nothing is done without a strategy
and plan. Based on reports one has heard about how the capabilities of ISRO
have been harnessed in far reaching ways than before especially for defence and
security of the nation.
Be it the Jan
Dhan accounts, linking of Aadhar to bank accounts, banning mobiles in meetings
and the announcement of Demonetisation there was a method and plan that was
thought through every single step. It is easy to nit pick on slip ups in such large-scale
projects.
Subsidy:
History had
told us and every politician, commentator had vouched that touching a subsidy
like LPG would be a political hot potato and end careers. But Modi with a
masterstroke of appealing to the people to voluntarily give up subsidies defanged
this monster and after that it was easy.
The govt then
used this to give connections to the rural populace. The one issue the poor
face is that cash flow is the challenge that everybody faces even if the
subsidy is remitted into their bank accounts directly. This issue could dent
the success that this scheme may bring the govt.
While some
BJP governments have talked of farm loan waivers Modi must be credited for not
falling into this trap even if it has hurt the govt. The results in MP,
Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh were clearly influenced by this to a large extent.
Diplomacy:
A more
appropriate name could be called Huglomacy where hugging became the signature
of his style. While nobody can ascertain the benefits the one thing one be sure
of is that this action does break barriers in most cases. However much his
foreign travels were criticised, those were mostly sour grapes I would say. The
level of support that India obtained across the world compared to before has
been far higher. We have managed to build bridges with Saudi, Iran, Israel,
Dubai, Qatar without getting hyphenated with their internal issues, religious
issues and Pakistan. The contradictions in these relationships were humongous
but India managed to bridge them excellently. The invite of Mrs Sushma Swaraj
as the Guest of Honour for the first time in 50 years and that too even after
the terror attack/air strike speaks volumes of the bridges built.
Undoubtedly
foreign policy and diplomacy have been the most successful of the Modi govt
even if there were fly's in the ointment like China. However, nobody can accuse
Modi of not trying. Inviting all the heads of state for the swearing in and
then the sudden stop over in Pakistan were brilliant decisions. The latter
especially was fraught with as a security nightmare, but Modi managed to pull it
off. While his critics will point out the failures of these actions, the
important aspect is that he proved that no matter what, the old strategy of
loud protests and back to talks were of no use. If Modi had taken a tough
approach from day one the entire world would have berated him. But today nobody
can point a finger that he didn’t try the Nehruvian methods.
Digital:
Promoting a
cashless economy, going in for digitisation of records and processes, pushing
the envelope on online transactions – not always economic – to encompass even
mundane things like appointments with officers and ministers in Delhi he
brought in a huge amount of transparency and change in the status quo. This is another big feather in his cap though
once again the economic results will begin to show post 2022 in a more visible manner.
Farmers:
This is
another political hot potato that he has not touched much to shake the status
quo. There have been profound changes be it neem coating, insurance, soil cards
etc but this is a very long work in process. The benefits are linked to
digitisation, agricultural reforms like the way farmers today sell, contract
farming, weaning the farmers out of the subsidy debt trap, which more often
that not is personal than pure agrarian crisis. That most politicians classify
themselves as agriculturists and then pay no taxes is also a part of the
problem. Any govt will need at least 10 to 15 years of sustained effort to
bring about change and here there is a beginning.
Jobs:
At one level the
widely held perspective is that there aren’t enough jobs which has a ring of
truth to it because gone are the days when an IT company picked up employees
like a vacuum cleaner from campuses. As long as you were human – they gave you
a job. The industry has plateaued, matured, globally there are resistances and
so the visible jobs have reduced. It is another matter that these same IT
companies kept riding the coolie train only to suddenly find that the world has
changed, and the techies had to be really that – techies, not glorified
coolies. If these reduction in jobs pertained to labourers, blue collar workers
then nobody would be shouting, and media wouldn’t even know about it. Just like
there was no protest when millions of blue-collar jobs in USA went to China and
protests started only when white collar jobs went to India. The people who have
a voice need to get hurt for it to become news.
Fact also is
that the formal employment in India has never been high. Self-employment has
been the biggest job creator however much you may mock pakoda economics because
you hail from a privileged background. With mechanisation and economies of
scale as the only way to increase farm outputs, the REAL jobs to be created are
for the labour class. For this the manufacturing sector needs to grow. If anything,
the inability to push manufacturing faster is what can be called the real
failure of this govt. But unless labour and land laws change these would continue to be
challenges and a Modi 2.0 will need to address this on priority.
Ayodhya:
Yawn…. This
is a horse that’s been flogged to death. The 20 something of 1991 is now
hitting the 50’s and wants to retire. Those born then wouldn’t know a damn
about its history or geography. This is an issue more in the media and the
older generation who have nothing better to do. Is this an emotional issue?
Yes. But no law can resolve a centuries old issue with any kind of logic.
Hopefully the mediation will bring about a result because THAT is the only way
this can be resolved, and this ghost buried. Based on what kind of Modi 2.0 we
get in terms of numbers this may finally see a closure.
What Has Changed - Part 2
What Has Changed - Part 2
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