2014 – 2019 – what has changed - Part 2

Kashmir:

When one looks at history, the number of Himalayan errors made are as so many, that this is like a entangled thread with knots. Every time you think you untied one, another appears. Today it has reached a point where even if you give up the state to Pakistan there will be no peace. For decades a whole generation of people have been brought up on the myth that Art 370 and 35 is the oxygen they live on. Nothing could be further from the truth. Given the free money that goes towards lining the pockets of everybody involved nobody will want to resolve the issue. An honest attempt was made with the Mufti but he died and with his death everything came crashing down.

This is a cancer, make no mistake about it and even if god were to be involved, there will be surgery, pain, scars which will take time to heal. If one goes by the actions in the recent past the surgery is being planned. The strength of Modi 2.0 will decide that fate.    

Narrative:

Here is what I call the biggest failure of the Modi govt and it has nothing to do with him. Nobody other than Modi could really effectively communicate with the masses. It’s a fallacy to say that his leadership style is the cause. Even a Amit Shah has commented that legislators need to educate themselves much more about the programs, benefits and go out to tell the people. A large older, senior, lazier team of BJP has simply tried to ride on Modi’s oratory. That will not work. The younger smarter one's are learning the nuances of bureaucracy and cannot be blamed for not going to sit with the people. 

The spokespersons that BJP has leave much to be desired and need to be subject matter experts, have data at their fingertips, do lots of homework and only then should they be sent to panel discussions. Often a citizen on SM gives more valid and compelling arguments on issues. This is where the real weakness of BJP lies.

Finally, whenever any incident happened be it a lynching or a burglary just because the issue/cause is identified with BJP ecosystem everyone stayed quiet and thus appropriated all the blame for the incident. Even if later the accusations were false it didn’t register. If the BJP ecosystem was responsible for the incidents, then they deserve the negative press they got. If they were not responsible but were being set up, they showed poor judgement by not reacting strongly and harshly. In short given the brilliant communicator that Modi is, the party cannot become like the Indian cricket team of the 70’s/80’s when if Gavaskar was out, it meant the team was out. It would be ridiculous if anyone said that his authoritarian style prevents his MP's/MLA's/Workers from communicating the message to voters. 

Talent:

Every government needs political and managerial talent in its ministers to navigate the minefield. Sadly, the Modi govt had a surfeit of managerial talent but little political talent. The few who had both cannot win elections to save their lives. This is a historical issue with BJP where even under ABV/LKA they were bereft of talent. Talent is not simply knowing how to play politics and win elections. Political talent is about how you can stand up to be someone different and tread a different path than your opponent to checkmate him, navigate the bureaucracy to get things done. 

To me the Modi 1.0 government is the FIRST non-Congress government in India. Even the ABV/LKA govt was a Congress wearing saffron. That explains why not just the opposition, but an entire ecosystem is up in arms against Modi.

Leadership and Decisiveness:

On this there can be no second argument. You can agree or disagree with the decisions, the style but that they have a stamp of authority, are different from what we have seen before, a complete change in status quo and a new normal cannot be debated. For the first time there is a leader who is willing to accept the blame, the brickbats, the abuse but says that I will also take the credit, the glory and the name for the success. That’s rare in life.

Be it throwing out over 1500 squatters from Lutyens bungalows, refusing to talk to media, not shying away from giving it back harshly to opponents in debates, taking the risk of publicising surgical/ air strikes, demonetisation, the man has shown a penchant for playing high stakes poker. If you don’t have the stomach to handle the pressure, then you can’t blame him.

The man told the officers that he would work longer and harder than any of them. Many have said that the man sets a punishing schedule and be it ministers or officers they face breakdowns. That the ecosystem for decades was lazy, moribund, sloppy is the reason and blaming Modi for the new work culture is silly.

That the man works hard and literally 24x7 is apparent from just following his schedule every day. Yet he seems to have the energy to convey fresh ideas and inspiration to audiences which must be appreciated. A politician’s job is 24x7, but he seems to take this to a whole new level.

Be it rescuing Indians trapped in Yemen or demonetisation or relationship with China or handling the case of Wing Commander Abhinandan, this govt has shown visible leadership from the front and the willingness to stick their neck out with an absolute focus and clarity of purpose - coupled with surprises, taking risks and calling the likely bluffs.

Railways:

For decades this ministry was a reward to be given to a friendly ally. Why play with toy trains which everybody loves to do. Give the chaps a real train network to have fun. I cannot even remember the last railway minister who was serious about the job. It was probably Jaffer Sheriff in the Indira cabinet in 1983. After that its been one long slide downwards. Madhav Rao Scindia sparkled briefly, but that was it. Under the Modi govt the railways became clean, the ministers had to clean up 3 decades of filth which they did admirably. This is a story sadly neglected by the media including by those who are more open minded. Its probably the cheap air fares that has made rail travel into a third class option and less dignified. My life and memories revolve around trains and a train travel is an education of a lifetime.

Swachh Bharat:

If anybody had told me that a PM would talk of hygiene, cleanliness and such I would have laughed. Even when Modi announced it and talked of cleaning up Varanasi and Ganga I said – Yawwnn. Cleaning up Varanasi would need a few hundred missiles to raze everything to the ground and construct the city afresh. Cleaning Ganga? OK I shall laugh at the joke, it was first conceived in 1985 by that whiz kid Pitroda for Rajiv Gandhi who today advises Rahul Gandhi with nothing to show for 34 years.  I had said that it will take a hundred years to clean up.

But in 6 years between 2013 and 2019, 3 visits to Varanasi I am astounded, speechless, and the only word I can use is Miracle. You can see visible change, change that is humongous. This is a legacy unless discontinued with perverse pleasure by a opposition, that history will remember and credit Modi with. Today more than one person chides another for littering the public spaces. This is still just the beginning and will take another decade or more to create a cleaner India. This will need behavioral changes which take time, but a beginning has been made. This is one program that can be called the most far reaching, visionary and even audacious where nobody can count the political benefits in terms of votes, commercial benefits in terms of health, tourism, mortality etc.

These are pictures from 2013/2015: 

THEN SEE THE SAME PICTURE BELOW

THEN SEE THE SAME PICTURE BELOW

THEN

THEN

THEN SEE THE SAME PICTURE BELOW

THEN SEE THE SAME PICTURE BELOW

NOW COMPARED TO BEFORE PICTURE

NOW

NOW

NOW COMPARED TO BEFORE PICTURE

NOW - ALL SEWAGE LINES SHUT DOWN

NOW

NOW THE SAME VIEW AS SHOWN ABOVE

NOW A CLOSE UP OF THE CLEAN WATERS

Economy:

For those who have had a closer look into the way India was functioning, as against data and statistics, the government has made many fundamental changes that over time will bring huge benefits. Be it the ease of doing business or other such initiatives the Modi govt has tried to bring a change in the way the bureaucracy functions, the attitude to business. This is not easy given a long entrenched feudal, patronage, broker driven system. That these have reduced in substantial measure is fact to those who deal with the govt. That there is resistance to such changes is also fact. The number of such jobs being lost are one too many - which likely explains the no jobs refrain.

If at all one can complain about the economy, it is that the Modi govt did not have any item numbers to create excitement. Deep dive economics cannot always be the only direction to take. But more importantly the govt has definitely missed a few steps for reasons best known to them, have stirred the pot where avoidable and surely not managed the narrative better. Some of these are as follows.

• The govt should have removed the retrospective tax in its first budget in 2014 with prospective effect. They ended up supporting a UPA decision which they had criticised strongly.
• A white paper on the economy as in 2014 should have been made ready and if not in 2014 itself, it should have found mention in 2018 and tabled in parliament.
• Purely from an economic standpoint of eradicating black money the Demonetisation did not exactly solve issues, it threw the economy off the rails and did cause a lot of hardship to many. But outside of the stated reasons, the issues related to security, fake currency, economic terrorism which as per reports and incidents like bank looting in Kashmir, were important factors. However, the govt failed to communicate this effectively. Even if there were to be certain reasons of secrecy, the govt should have privately briefed some opposition leaders, opinion makers and made them sign off to having been briefed. This would have made all these folks shut up.
• When it is China that is needling India and USA has been far more friendly, I think the policies as related to E-commerce, angel tax, could have been handled far better than they were. Even the youngsters working in such companies did not understand the intent and only got irritated with the govt.

But overall purely from a long-term perspective, the economic policies initiated will yield the desired fruits, as long as Modi 2.0 is there to build upon it and also enjoy the fruits.

What has Changed - Part 3