Random Musings - February 2026

I last wrote a blog in November 25 and though globally, politically lots of stuff happened, personally, professionally I just could not sit down to pen my thoughts. Finally, I pushed myself today to write.

Trade Deals:

After a landmark trade deal with UK in mid-2025, India signed one with European Union in January’26 and in February’26, Donald Trump as usual unilaterally announced that a trade deal was agreed which India did not contradict and instead followed up with confirmations. Even if the USA trade deal were to be inked, the deal has no sanctity given the whimsical negotiating strategy of POTUS. The global political order has changed, and Trump is rewriting every single rule there is in life.

The risk in this is that if some other global leader inspired or frustrated decides to react equally whimsically, this new normal can get formalised and change the world forever. If on the other hand, the rest hold their horses/ tongue, we can see a calibrated return to status quo ante in the rest of the world. USA will take a long time to recover from the body blows – because Trump has single handedly catalysed exactly what he sought to prevent – dollar dominance.

This activity world over where the dollar is actively kept out will continue and unless USA scales back on its whimsical politics it will only gather pace and a truly multilateral world with multiple currencies will become dominant.

Where and how the Indian currency will get positioned – is a moot question and right now there are no clear answers. In the short run however, the Chinese Yuan can get prominence but to think China is a stabilising world power is a pipe dream. It is a hegemonic world power.

If the USA is blessed with a huge distance between it and others and decent neighbours, India has no such luxury and sandwiched between multiple “enemies”.

2026/27 should be an interesting year – to put it mildly.

Indian Industry - Lazy?:

Having spent a lifetime in the manufacturing sector across various industry segments I have often said what is disliked by many – Indian Industry is LAZY!!!!

Before one gets their hackles up, I am not using Lazy in its classical definition since we work very hard, we put up motivational posters across our factories and offices, even CEO’s boast of 18 hr days etc. I use the term in a totally different context. Do read this post on LinkedIn and this interview in a newspapers. Again, this is not about Bajaj auto but Indian industry in general.

India's Start Up Eco Systems

China supplies over 90% of the magnets globally, said to control 69% of the production. I had written about how the Dragon wins in business in 2020.

Why the Chinese Dragon wins in Business

Bajaj Auto and I am sure many other automakers, others are equally affected by the shortage of these rare earth magnets which they import from China. As per reports, 69% of the global production and 90% of the supplies to the world are controlled by China. Did this happen in the last 24 hrs ? No, this was growing steadily and swiftly and with each increase in scale, volume, control, the Chinese gave discounts and typical of Indian industry they were in a perpetual wet dreams mode. Not one CEO am sure has ever asked his supply chain team – what is your derisking strategy – when you depend 100% on one country. They were I am sure dreaming of the fat bonuses, dividends, villas in Dubai and London by buying more from China.

My question - what clarity is this industry leader seeking from the Govt ? Does he think India still follows the pre 1991 system where everybody needed to go to the DGFT before taking any decision? Did any India Govt post 1991 prevent such folks from derisking their business/ supply chains ? At best one can argue that the Indian Govt has not pursued a policy of promoting the rare earth/ mining industry in India - but to demand clarity as here betrays the REAL thinking - "we will import ONLY from China, and unless we have clarity from the Govt we will be hurt".

25 years back I recall attending a board meeting and proudly presenting about how we had developed a major customer/ revenues, the Chairman commented that at around 50%+ I was creating a huge risk for the company and instead of celebrating, I should be presenting to the board my derisking strategy to bring this customer's share to less than 30%. Big lesson learnt by me but not by the Indian or even global industry it seems.

Way back in the 90’s when India liberalised, the same Bajaj group was against that decision but 34 years later, reports indicate that upto 40% and even 70% of an EV scooter is based on imported components with majority parts from China. Has even one Indian manufacturer worked on a second/ third vendor development plan on hand. Willing to bet - slim and none.

As a part of the manufacturing industry in a customer facing role, I do not recall even one offering a level playing field to Indian vendors as compared to the Chinese. But wait, wasn’t that exactly the argument of the infamous Bombay club led by Rahul Bajaj where he rightly argued that Indian industry must be given a level playing field compared to the foreigners ?

Today, a Chinese manufacturer will demand numbers, commitments, and offer a low price and the Indian buyer accepts those without a murmur. An Indian vendor for the same item, is rarely if ever given the same terms and yet the buyers demand the same Chinese price. I don’t just blame the buyer, I equally blame the vendors who will not think big, execute big and when faced with a commercial challenge will take the first flight to Shanghai and before one can blink, will transform into traders. I don’t blame them either, for centuries, Indian reputation and DNA is that of traders.

That the Finance Minister of India - after having been in that role for 9 years - signalling continuity in thought process and in a government that is in power for 12 years, signalling continuity in policy - has to make such statement is a slap on the face of the Indian Private sector.

I can rationalise that 2014 ~ 2019 the private sector was unsure if this new Govt was a black swan event, then in 2019 ~ 2024, the pandemic hit. But At least by 2021/22 the Indian private sector should have started investing and they failed to do so.

But the world is changing. The trade deals referred above create opportunities for Indian manufacturing to spread its wings globally, to a plan. The big question is – will they or once again in a lazy manner surrender to the Chinese from Vietnam, Thailand instead. The Prime Minister was on target when he mentioned that reforms in India were always in a duress situation. Indian industry needs to wake up and change failing which AI and other technology will drown the nation into becoming yet again a colonised nation like in the past.

Indian Infotech/ service industry:

This recent post on X caught my attention and while my reaction is NOT about Infosys, it is about my tirade on the laziness of the Indian industry.

7 Indian software/infotech companies with a global footprint have a total of around 60 Billion $ in reserves as per public reports.

We have heard of Global brands/products that we identify with daily – Microsoft, Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, LinkedIn, Google, Amazon, Apple etc and each are aspirational for Indians.

Till 2026 I do not recall a single global Product/ Brand created/acquired by an Indian company that is used globally. Each of the above products/brands have significant Indian infotech talent creating and building them, even leading them – but not one has ever been inspired to create something or even acquire something. 

Flipkart one would have thought as an Indian competitor to Amazon could have gone global, the Indian infotech giants could have given them wings to fly high, but instead they stumbled and were acquired by Walmart, USA for just 16 Billion. Today the top of the mind recall even in India is Amazon, not Flipkart even though Flipkart can claim a higher marketshare. Walmart has invested to increase stake but very little in business as compared to Amazon.

In a changing world where each one of us is constantly online, our lives merged online to a terrifying degree, cybersecurity is key and is anyone in India working to create a solution for the world or get acclaimed as the Cybersecurity experts? Nyah. Heck I am unsure if the Indian infotech industry even has folks who can hack into global systems as a part of Indian Defence Deterrance, while the Chinese others seem able to hack into global systems and wreak havoc on economies.

Wars are changing at a fast pace and drones that cost a few hundred dollars can bring down a nation economically or optionally create deterrence that can protect its cities and citizens. These involve a combination of hardware/software and cutting edge technology – again is this activity getting prominence within the Infotech industry in India to go global? Nyah. Drones are for Pre wedding and wedding shoots !!

Folks will argue of how something was done in India, but my argument is not about doing something in India, it is about doing something for the world, from India. That is when we truly become global and find a seat at the high table. Not as the colonised hangers on being given scraps from the table and feeling proud but being the host at the table. That is when we would have truly arrived.