Incidents have happened, there is blowback and only time will tell how this will end in the short run and in the long run. The long run is what is more troubling, and it is not about what happens to Israel/ Palestine/ Gaza/ Iran/ Lebanon, but how the incidents that have unfolded will impact global security and even life.
Again, rewinding to early 2001, my first trip to USA. Landing late at New York airport I ran like a maniac trying to catch my connecting flight, jumping, dodging. Later during the same trip, hopelessly lost in Washington DC, I managed to reach Dulles airport literally minutes before my flight was to depart. Once again, I ran, jumped, dodged and literally entered the aircraft even as the flight attendant was closing the door. Everybody, including the flight attendant were either sympathetic to my run or at best mildly irritated.
Life as we knew it changed inexorably. The events during
this Israel Hamas conflict also promise to do the same even if more slowly, but
with far more impact on our daily lives.
Israel with the Pager/ Walkie Talkie bombs have created a “monster” that will haunt this world for a long time. Even if the level of sophistication, human intelligence (as defined in the spy world), logistics and risks involved in carrying out such a large-scale operation is complex and not easily replicable, carrying out a similar operation in a small way to inflict psychological and economic damage is far easier. An enemy nation or terrorist organisation, from within a nation, can easily carry out such an operation in a random fashion where hardly few people may get killed but the fear and paranoia that gets created will have a significant economic impact.
In every such situation, the targeted nation may not have the resources, capability, time, to retaliate and even if they possess all of these may not have any proof to justify retaliation. Remember, any nation in a reactionary mode, without plausible evidence gets little benefit as a nation, even if they respond covertly. For example, post the Surgical strikes and Balakot air raid by India, the earlier Congress govt cried foul that even they had been equally tough on the enemy but never announced it. Fair enough as an argument, likely true, but the popular opinion across an angry nation was that the Congress govt did nothing while the BJP govt did something. If a Congress govt carried out 10 secret operations to deter the enemy and did not publicise any, they score zero while a BJP govt carried out say, 5 operations but publicised 2, they score 2, 200% more than Congress. It’s like the old joke about winking at a woman in the dark. Retaliation is as much about narratives, opinion and image building as it is about deterrence.
The Nord stream pipelines 1 and 2 were built at a total cost of about 25 Billion Dollars, with Nord Stream 2 commissioned in 2021. The investors from Germany, Holland, France, Britain, Austria owned 49% while Russia had 51 % and yet between them someone blew this whole thing up. Such is the level of madness in a war today.
In short, there are no easy answers and chasing opinions that sits well with us and makes us feel satisfied, does not mean that we are fighting the problem. We are only fighting our fear and outrage and the systems around us reinforce them so long as the system feels that it benefits from supporting us. The systems could be combination of anybody from a Govt, a deep state, a foreign power, powerful corporates etc. The competition between them gives birth to different fears and outrages – this is what is called the war of narratives.
In this kind of war, call it information warfare, technology again becomes key. Internet, websites, dark web, instant messaging, mobile phone apps, the algorithms that create confirmation bias, gather data that leads to information etc. – all become weapons of war – without a shot fired.
Between these hardware and software the future of war and confrontation between nations can and will undergo significant change. Anybody trying to predict the possible scenarios will be accused of being a conspiracy theorist. Various opinions driven by the algorithms of the apps WE use craft OUR opinions and thus control OUR minds and OUR lives, all the while making us feel that only WE are righteous. This can only lead US on a path where WE effectively self-destruct and destroy others while claiming to fight for world peace, goodwill and what have you – and always blame others.
The future of war will be more economic using technology (including biological) and the current wars are giving us a sneak preview provided we are willing to see it.
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