Ruminating on the Israel Hamas war

In 1947 the British left behind two enduring messy legacies. One was in creating Israel but without creating Palestine fully even if the UN created a map. The solution was so messy, that Jordan and Egypt managed the area which the Palestinians today claim but as having been taken by Israel. Reality is that none of the Arab states wanted either Israel or Palestine. In this existential game Israel took control over the Golan heights, west bank and the Gaza strip.

The second was a problematic situation in Kashmir, with the partition of India and Pakistan. The mess we have seen over the decades was significantly India’s own making, actively exploited by Pakistan. Before the reader jumps, read on a bit.

Just as the Hamas attacked Israel and plundered, raped, killed people earlier this month, tribals were encouraged by the Pakistan army attacked India for Kashmir. These irregulars were not paid, and so they plundered, raped, looted, killed and owing to this delay, reached the outskirts of Srinagar rather late. What is called PoK today was taken over by Pakistan. If perchance they had focussed on the objective, they could have taken over Kashmir until beyond Srinagar given the monumental dithering by India.

India, instead of swiftly reacting and not allowing loss of territory or taking back what was India’s, we accepted the fait accompli, internationalised it at the UNO and then brought in the pernicious cancer called Art 370 which meant that a problem was converted into a mess with Kashmir becoming a ATM for many, including Pakistan .

If perchance Pakistan had taken over Srinagar, likely there would be no conflict since knowing the political leadership of 1947, India would not have done anything.  We would have lived with the fait accompli barring for periodic speeches. On the other hand, the Abdullah or Mufti family, would be a part of the Pakistan landscape and likely non existent politically.   

In the middle east, a mess was created and various actors – not one of whom had the Palestine interest at heart – stirred that pot time and again with frequent wars. Israel which was a homeland for the Jews after millions across Europe, Russia, were systematically killed in an ethnic genocide by the Nazi’s. They ended up winning every conflict in a fight for survival and with no Arab state keen about Palestine but very strongly anti-Israel/ Anti-Semitic, the cancer stayed.

Given the kind of horrors that had been inflicted on the Jews one would think that a nation like India and its political leaders in 1947 would show greater compassion to Israel even while being sympathetic to the Palestinians. India recognised the PLO in 1974, established diplomatic relations in 1980 and recognised the state of Palestine in 1988. On the other hand, India recognised Israel in 1950 but established diplomatic relationship only in 1992. When various political dispensations in India talk of peace, brotherhood, co-existence, etc they ring hollow since Indian foreign policy politics in a way had been Anti-Semitic till 1992.

Coming back to the conflict let’s look at the basic facts as we know.

• Hamas a designated terrorist organisation launched a brilliant and well-planned attack on Israel during a holiday. This was least expected as observed by the fact that the response from Israel security was rather late. They were caught napping literally.
• Hamas not just entered an area but went house to house killing, looting, raping and then absconding with hostages who were even filmed gleefully for the whole world to see.
• Though a little late, further facts emerged about how even babies were killed and then decapitated with pictures. Women had their breasts cut off. The level of barbarism was unprecedented.
• Even if delayed the Israel defence forces were deployed and we see massive bombing and counterattack happening.
• Israel has declared war; a unified Government has been formed and as we speak the war is in full flow.
• We see global support from nations like USA, UK while some Arab states especially Iran have opposed Israel as usual. Interestingly China and Russia have not exactly condemned the terror attack.

Going back to Indian foreign policy, since 1947 it seems to have been dictated more by domestic religious compulsions rather than any logic. Fact is that the Indian political system has been held hostage to looking at world politics from the Indian Muslim prism. The Indian Muslims can never be blamed for this, but successive Indian political leadership, prompted maybe by the brutal partition on religious grounds, factored in Indian Muslim sensibilities in foreign policy even if the community never demanded it. Case in point was the Indo USA Nuclear accord in 2006 signed by Congress led Manmohan Singh Government. Literally days before the signing, the Indian government backed off, scared what the Indian Muslims would think and do. This incident is well documented and bears no repetition. Mulayam Singh Yadav gave assurances on behalf of Indian Muslims that they would not object. The ridiculousness of the situation can be seen by the fact that no Muslim organisation seems involved in this whole sordid saga. In fact as per reports, they were upset at this tarnishing of their image. Successive Indian governments have done the greatest disservice to Indian Muslims by demonising them over such issues.

Even today a significant section of Indian politics still displays this Anti-Semitic behaviour since they are mentally held hostage by their (self-created) fear of what the Indian Muslim will think.

The Modi government turned Indian foreign policy on its head or straightened it to stand upright and while popular opposition and global narratives have been how his government is Anti Muslim, the following facts need to be noted.

• The Order of Zayed, the United Arab Emirates' highest civil decoration since 1995 has been bestowed upon folks like Pervez Musharaff, Vladimir Putin, George Bush, Xi Jinping and recently Narendra Modi.
• The Order of King Abdul Aziz, the highest civilian award by Saudi Arabia since 1971 has been bestowed upon folks like Donald Trump, Barack Obama, Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, King Gyanendra of Nepal, Pervez Musharaff, Silvio Berlusconi and recently Narendra Modi.
• Order of Nile, the highest award of Egypt, started in 1915 has been given to folks like Yuri Gagarin, Nelson Mandela, Jimmy Carter, King Birendra of Nepal, Katerina the President of Greece and recently Narendra Modi
• King Hamad Order of the Renaissance by Bahrain started in 2008 was also given to Narendra Modi.

Given the chest beating secularism displayed by Indian politics for decades - India banned the book Satanic Verses even before the Muslim world, persisted with the Triple Talaq even when Muslim nations had outlawed it - Nehru and the Congress party should have been given an award by at least one Muslim nation.

The point is NOT about Modi winning an award.  Whatever cynical explanations or arguments one may offer, fact is these Muslim nations had not given any award, to any Indian political leader till now because no Muslim nation globally cares a hoot about the Indian Muslims. This was the delusion of Indian politics, that the opinion of the Indian Muslims matter in international foreign policy.  The only thing nations factor in, in foreign policy, is their self-interest and which political leader helps that cause.

Consequently, Indian politics holding themselves hostage to a non-existent issue helped no one, least of all India. In that sense the fine balancing act being carried out by the Indian govt makes ample sense. While they have unequivocally condemned the Terrorist attack by Hamas, they have also assured and supported the Palestine Government. There is a very clear red line being drawn on terrorism.  

At another level, all kinds of conspiracy theories are being shared and they remain – speculations of a fertile mind to create a narrative and confusion. But one possible fall out of this horrendous attack is already being observed. Green shoots as one can term it, but in a barren global political space, a green shoot is a huge success.

Already, there has been a massive push back from many in the corporate world who have been horrified to see various student organisations support the Hamas at Harvard University. They are demanding to get the names of these students so that they DO NOT recruit these students in their organisations. Suddenly, a left-liberal woke world is waking up to its own existential crisis.

Middle east Muslim countries have already announced they will NOT take in any refugees. Europe is already inundated with Muslim refugees and paying a huge cost towards their upkeep, not to speak of the cultural disruption in their societies. They have spent billions on COVID and then the Ukraine war and whether USA or Europe, they can ill afford the cost of another war.

These developments are likely to see a larger pushback against terrorism where the Islamic faith is made the clarion call. The politically correct narratives can get a makeover and the larger Muslim world come under pressure. These are early days yet, but as I said, the green shoots are being seen.

In the meantime, the image of Mossad and Israel will take a little beating. While the public will know little, they at large will laugh at the failure of the invincible Mossad. A failure this must be seen as, since the scale of the operation, the logistics, training, and minute planning were such that it is almost impossible to keep this quiet.

Way back in the 80’s India heard that the Pakistan army was buying high altitude clothing in Europe. A European mountaineering expedition that had come to India from Pakistan had a map that showed certain areas in Kashmir incorrectly. An army Colonel dashed to Delhi, went all the way to Mrs Indira Gandhi the then PM through the chain of command and got clearance to mount Operation Meghdoot which finally took over Siachen. When such innocuous information trigger alarm bells within the defence and security establishment, the question as to how Israel failed to get even a hint is strange to say the least. 

Gaza is just a 365 sq kms area and the logistics requirement so high that it could not have been missed. Further, more than one competing terrorist organisation is involved in Gaza though the Hamas name is most popular. The map shows how tiny the area where global Intel missed all the action is.

The famed Five Eyes get information about local gang wars and have weekly meetings with them like in Canada, but the world should believe that none had a handle on what these known terrorist organisations were doing? If not Mossad, one or the other intelligence agencies would have got a whiff and passed on the information. I would say this was the collective failure of the intel operations of the entire western world. Like the 9/11 or 26/11 attack, this was a perfect storm is one argument, but even in those two cases the intel was there – it was just not analysed well enough.

As conspiracy theories abound, granting this operation was so well handled that nobody got a whiff globally, one theory can even be that an unofficial Iran/Russia/ China axis helped pull this off. 

See the benefits of this theory. USA led peace talks between Saudi and Israel gets scuttled, & middle east remains on the boil, USA eyes on Russia/Ukraine can get diluted, Taiwan under threat from China can get pushed down the pecking order, USA/ China trade issues get complicated, and in general USA attention and money comes under increased pressure with too many balls up in the air. The hope of that being that USA may well just drop one of the balls. China and Russia would love to see USA overextend themselves and trip.

The following is from way back in March 2023, but it has a message to ponder over.

Russia China Iran Axis

Like they say – the picture is still unfolding.