Defense Industry - Part 5 - Numbers don't lie

To get an idea of the level of differences between India and Pakistan (not looking at China on this comparison) please read this.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/02/india-pakistan-military-strength-arsenal-190226064227556.html

https://armedforces.eu/compare/country_India_vs_Pakistan

This comparison is very interesting in that it shows the percentage against the highest in the globe. One will find that in many cases India is lagging far behind China and China is a real and present danger to India.

While most commentators focus on the numbers and make it sound that India is numerically far superior, which is true, the devil lies in the details.

Parameter	India	Pakistan	Difference X
Population in Mil	1339	212	6.3
GDP in Billion $	2900	305	9.5
Defence as percentage of GDP	2.5 %	2.9 %	0.86
Military budget in Bil $	55.9	10.8	5.18
Coastline	7516 Kms	700 kms	10.7
Border length	3323	3323 kms	1
Land mass	3.29 Mil Sq Kms	0.89 Mil Sq Kms	3.69

Now let’s take a dip stick data of the armed forces infrastructure

Parameter	India	Pakistan	Difference X
Military budget in Bil $	56	11	5.09
Active personnel in Mil	2.1	0.65	3.23
Artillery	5067	3745	1.35
Self-propelled artillery	290	325	0.89
Rockets	292	134	2.18
Tanks	4426	2735	1.62
Armoured vehicles	5681	3066	1.85
Total aircraft	2216	1143	1.94
Fighter aircraft	323	186	1.74
Multi role	329	225	1.46
Attack	220	90	2.44
Helicopters	725	323	2.24
Total naval	214	231	0.93
Frigates	15	9	1.67
Submarines	15	5	3
Airborne early warning systems	4	7	0.57
Nuclear weapons	130	130	1

Now while actual figures can vary, the differences and ratios will remain the same. While statistics can lie, they also tell a story. For a country that is between 6 to 10 times bigger than Pakistan on the parameters that need to be defended, the defence infrastructure is hardly 2 times in most cases and slightly higher in some. The point here is not to argue on specific numbers but the fact that India’s defence preparedness in terms of infrastructure is not as high as it should be.  Pakistan whether you like it or not in terms of military hardware is much closer to parity with India and that is discomforting. While we can wax eloquent about the economic differences the fact is that even with 1/5^th of the budget in absolute amounts the level of military hardware preparedness of Pakistan is half that of India in a manner of speaking. This tells a very grim story indeed.

When you take into consideration that China is also hostile to India and a close ally of Pakistan, these figures can tell a vastly different story. Defence preparedness is woefully short, and we cannot blame anyone but ourselves for it. India does not have a single bordering country that can come to its aid in times of war whereas Pakistan has China the big brother watching its back. 2019 is not 1971 and today neither USA nor Russia will step in to aid either country. On the other hand, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Nepal, Myanmar have all not exactly been overtly friendly towards India in the past decade and more.

So while India can thump its chest on being bigger and the Pakistan leadership keeps emphasising this difference the reality is that hardware to hardware, head to head military wise, Pakistan in 2019 is no pushover and with a itching finger on the nuclear button India would be making a grave mistake to underestimate Pakistan – jingoism aside.

Just for a minute lets imagine that most of these military hardware statistics showed a difference of 3 to 4x between India and Pakistan – the belligerence of Pakistan today would likely me far more muted than what it is. Just read these latest reports on preparedness of even the basic variety in the most hostile battle zone.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/cag-flags-lack-of-rations-gear-for-soldiers-in-siachen-ladakh/articleshow/73916549.cms

That in 2018 we are talking of exploring options to manufacture winter clothing locally shows the level of lethargy and moribund systems that exist.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/army-finalises-project-to-produce-clothing-equipment-for-soldiers-guarding-siachen-glacier-doklam/articleshow/65373966.cms?from=mdr

That the Indian govts post 1971 and especially post 1988 Bofors have allowed India to grow weak militarily is fact. That ever since the days of Nehru as demonstrated in the 1962 China war Indian govts have not exactly been focussing on defence preparedness is a sorry tale to tell.  All the talk of a cold start, two front war feels good on paper and the Indian armed forces can still prevail but only because of being able to sustain a longer period of engagement in a war. Today fact is that the Indian armed forces from a conventional war point of view are not a deterrence to Pakistan. While the govts have taken some knee jerk decisions in between the fact is also that it is only post 2014 that there has been a concerted effort to build military parity and conventional deterrence.  The last time there was some modicum of seriousness given to matters military was in the months prior to the 1971 war which again was by default and not design. This effort will still take years to yield results provided the momentum is maintained.

We move to the end

https://rvasisht.blogspot.com/2020/02/defense-industry-part-6-in-conclusion.html