A Zillion words have been
written and spoken about the decision of the Modi govt to abrogate Art 370/35A,
bifurcate it and downgrade Kashmir to a Union Territory.
A Zillion words have been
spoken and written about the many historical blunders done after that fateful
day in 1947 when Raja Hari Singh signed the instrument of accession to join India,
so much so that a new lexicon was coined to describe it – Himalayan Blunder.
Let’s look at the situation
from a different angle that does not seem to get the desired attention. What’s so
special about Art 370, what has it given to the people of Kashmir and what its
removal does. And no this is not about the
legalese but the emotions, feelings and matters of the heart seen through the
prism of practical politics.
Firstly, the India Pakistan
partition was done with no other logic than religion – Muslims and non-Muslims broadly
called Hindus.
Historically even in 1947 the
area broadly had 3 distinct demographics, geographies, languages in terms of
Kashmir, Jammu and Ladakh but for reasons best attributed to the list of Himalayan
blunders these 3 were combined as one entity. The area looks like this today and
it hasn’t changed drastically since 1947.
Region
|
Muslims
|
Non-Muslim
|
Jammu
|
31 %
|
69 % with 65 %
Hindus
|
Kashmir
|
97 %
|
3 %
|
Ladakh
|
47 %
|
53 % with 46 %
Buddhists
|
Overall average
|
67 %
|
33 %
|
Language
|
Percentage
|
Kashmiri
|
53 %
|
Hindi
|
21 %
|
Dogri
|
20 %
|
Punjabi
|
2 %
|
Others
|
4 %
|
However, Urdu is the official
language of the administration when even the majority of Muslims speak Kashmiri.
Further the Muslim population has about 10% Shias and they are a significant
group in Ladakh as against the Kashmir valley.
Now, partition happened based
on religion, formation of states on the basis of language and here we have 3
distinct demographics and people who have different reasons to call Jammu &
Kashmir as home being asked to live together and you have a recipe for disaster
from day 1. That the region overall had majority Muslims is fact.
And THEN we have an even more incongruous
situation wherein this region is led/owned by a Hindu king. The last king ruled
from 1925 till 1947, for 22 years. Prior
to that Dogra kings ruled for about a hundred years and that history from a
Muslim viewpoint has been anything but positive. Yet the King signs up to go with
India. This king had as his bitter rival in Sheikh Abdullah.
Now one viewpoint could even
be that Nehru was being more than fair when he suggested plebiscite, promised “autonomy”,
went to the UN etc and that may well have been the right way to handle things,
in 1947. Bordering Pakistan this can even sound logical.
On the other hand, we must also
remember that India had a significant population of Muslims at around 27% which
“fell” to around 10% due to partition but has since grown to around 15%. Also very
interestingly even though it does not seem to have been documented a large
number of Muslims from Pakistan also moved to India during partition. Rightly or
wrongly once the J&K area had been made a part of India in 1947, efforts
should have been taken to integrate it into India like say Hyderabad which also
had a significant Muslim population. Bengal which had already been partitioned
way back in 1905 itself on Hindu/Muslim lines as West and East Bengal and West
Bengal was integrated into India despite having a significant Muslim population
which stands at around 27% as of 2011.
So, the strategy followed in Kashmir
was flawed at so many levels right from the beginning but having taken one
momentous decision the further decisions in terms of integrating it with India were
flawed which as one can see was owing to egos and ambition.
Now let’s look at the possible
scenarios for J&K as we now see it. The question of Jammu or Ladakh
becoming a part of Pakistan even if Pakistan were to covet it would be a human rights
disaster. Even if one were to look at Ladakh Muslims, they are mainly Shias and
unlikely to find favour to go over to Sunni Pakistan. That leaves just the Kashmir
valley as the bone of contention.
Now Kashmir has 3 options – 1)
Merge with Pakistan 2) Become Independent (by claiming Jammu and Ladakh who will
likely not agree 3) Stay & fully integrate with India.
Now let’s step back to 1947
for a minute. Sheikh Abdullah was ambitious, he was trying to correct the
history of the Dogra rule and wanted to call himself Prime Minister – even if Kashmir
was a part of India. So fully integrating with India was a challenge. Kashmir was for centuries such a melting pot
owing to the history of a Muslim majority area being ruled by Hindus that they weren’t
“pure” enough to walk over to Pakistan and be accepted. Given the events in
PoK, Baloch etc this has proved true in hindsight and I am sure that the Sheikh
understood this, and which is why he backed India and Nehru. Read his history
here - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheikh_Abdullah#Personal_life
Nehru had his ambitions, had close
links to Kashmir himself and like a wily fox agreed to the special status, Art
370 etc and when he got the chance to strike back threw the Sheikh into jail downgraded
the position from Prime Minister of Kashmir to Chief Minister and established his
own position as the tallest leader in India. Subsequent events, the genocide in
East Pakistan and the 1971 war made the Sheikh very wise and opted to become
Chief Minister in 1975 but with the ego dressed up under the fig leaf of Art
370.
From then on, the situation in
Kashmir has been one of wanting to correct history, wise in hindsight and that
brings us back to the options as realised by the local leaders there.
1. Joining
Pakistan is a disaster since the Kashmiri Muslims will find themselves marginalised
and their economy isn’t in too great a shape either.
2. Becoming
independent is a bigger disaster since they have nothing to call revenue and
with years of militancy, they cannot attract foreign investment. The squabbling
between the Abdullahs, Muftis, Lones and the Hurriyat will mean that none have
a chance to defend the state and within days Pakistan would simply over run
them and possibly even get killed. All 4 factions know this but won’t tell you.
3. That
leaves staying with India as the only viable option – both security and economy
wise but under the fig leaf of Art 370.
Everybody and his uncle knows
that Art 370 as it stands today is a tattered fig leaf. But to the different factions
it gives them 3 major advantages – 1) Power to be divided and shared between
themselves completely 2) All expenses borne by India and using the security
excuse they live lavish lifestyles 3) There is no accountability on what is
spent.
Now which politician will want
to give this away easily? Maintaining the fig leaf of Art 370 they have allowed
it to be torn by successive amendments leaving it to as an illusion. However, for
7 decades they have sold this dream of “freedom” “independence” “autonomy” to
the people and any lack of development blamed on Hindu India. When they started
riding this pussy cat, little did they know it was actually a Tiger’s cub. Today
they are riding a tiger and can neither get off nor control it. Worse, if they
were to accept the new reality that integrating with India is the best option, they
need to accept what a “Hindu” Prime Minister Modi is willing to do. They also
know that no other secular “Hindu” (read Congress) is willing to do this since
they are not riding the “tiger” but feeding the “tiger” to keep it off their
back, keeping the various factions busy fighting to prevent being eaten by the “tiger”
and sharing the feast served to the tiger and with those who ride it. Now when
someone has a ringside seat to this performing circus why would they want to
change status quo. Remember the gladiator sports in history and you will see
Kashmir – the gladiators being the Abdullahs, Muftis, Lones, Hurriyat etc and
the VIP audience – secularists from India and all paid for by the citizens -
Indians.
Further the Kashmir valley has
divided itself into the elites and others. The elites have understood the game
being played and rather than control the “tiger” they have learnt to ride it as
their secular masters keep feeding it and themselves. Any opposition would mean
that the “maneater tiger” next door can step in and eat them. As it is their
secular friends maintain enough relationship with the “maneater tiger” to
ensure that everybody is in control while they watch the circus.
Having sold the dream of “azaadi”
as a viable option to the citizens of the land, the different factions now realise
that they not only have to dismount the tiger but also shut it in a cage. Again,
nobody but a govt led by Modi will help them and accepting that is like the end
of their centuries old dream – correct the historical shackles of Hindu rule. Also,
they will no longer get free meals, they must earn their meal like others. They
have forgotten how. So, the only option is to keep status quo – have Art 370
even if everybody knows that it is only an illusion. Also, you can’t tell the
people that it is an illusion since the audience will lynch them.
The secular Cong which fed both
the “tigers” so far has now backed into the cage hoping to protect itself and
the alternative before them is to get locked in. Hence, they need Art 370 to
protect themselves, to stay and fight another day. But the Modi govt has thrown
open the gates and the “tiger” as well as the “maneater tiger” smell blood. Which
is the blood these two get, what they will eat is as yet unclear.
The Modi govt is promising the
“tiger” a life of freedom and food when required but till such time the “tiger”
tastes this it is unlikely to accept this promise. The “maneater tiger” will
provoke the “tiger”, try to make common cause hoping to entice it, scare the
audience by charging at them but for a change instead of the gladiators, it’s
the VIP audience that is ready with swords drawn and the rest of the audience are
now cheering even louder than before.
Therein lies the Kashmir
conundrum.
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