The middle east is a conundrum of gigantic proportions ridden by conflict, contradiction and wealth. Historically the crusades, a war between Christians and Muslims, was to gain control over the epicentre, Jerusalem as the target. That war ended in 1291, but much later Britain and France took control over much of Middle east till after World War 2. Most nations in the middle east gained independence post 1930’s.
- 1930s-1940s: Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Israel
- 1950s: Libya, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia
- Post 1960s: Kuwait, South Yemen, UAE
While WW2 pushed Britain and France to cede control, my surmise is the western nations understood the importance of the oil wealth in that area, and continued to exert influence. The predominantly Christian post WW2 west leveraged the inherent contradictions within the Muslim ideology.
In the middle east, Saudi Arabia followed by Iran are the largest in terms of size, making them tougher to control.
Post WW2, the western nations gained primacy and key political relationships with the Sunni nations, while Syria and Palestine have been wasted with wars and violence. On the other hand, barring for Bahrain, a very small nation, the Shia nations have been engulfed in war and violence since long. See XX below
One can argue that that the conservative and orthodox Muslim ideology nations in the Sunni block have been more pragmatic, less confrontationist and have managed to ensure that western Christian culture doesn’t feel threatened, without diluting their own ideology. They have often co-opted the western nations using their wealth and ensured peace in their own nations.
Turkey has become a part of NATO. Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, UAE, and Saudi Arabia are officially under the security umbrella of the USA. In turn these nations have significant investments in the west and consequently, have ensured that the west can get hurt, if they get hurt. Even Qatar which has funded and supported various terror outfits, is so invested in the western economy that the west uses them as a neutral player who can be an interlocutor for meetings. Except Iran, USA controls all others in the region.
The Shia block however has been ridden by violence and a political leadership that has been often brutal, dictatorial and draconian. Their intolerance has been such that a Shia majority Iraq under a Sunni leader Saddam Hussain, attacked and fought Shia majority Iran for 8 years on the fear that the Islamic revolution could spread to Iraq. What happened next ended in tragedy.
Iraq, after an 8-year war with Iran attacked Kuwait, a Sunni nation and got clobbered by the Americans, slid into anarchy resulting in Saddam Hussain being killed in 2003. Apart from Iraq, other Shia nations like Lebanon, Yemen have been ravaged by violence while Syria and Libya, though Sunni nations, have also been trapped in violence owing to their despotic rulers and slid into anarchy and instability. A major observation is that if these rulers had displayed a more liberal approach, co-opted the western nations in their economic activity and in turn invested in western nations, these countries, even if orthodox and dictatorial, would have survived and even protected.
Anybody with an independent mind, open demonstration of such independence, throwing their weight around and finally brutally supressing their own people sooner than later attracted western nations and their armed forces with inevitable results of disaster. The USA led western world has followed this strategy globally wherever a nation and its leader has exhibited independence in thought and action. Recall the words of US President George Bush in 2001 - "You are either with us, or against us" – this USA approach continues even today except that some are diplomatic in what they say, but in what they do, there is consistency.
Another way of looking at this is also from the eyes of history where a modern-day crusade continues between the Christian and Muslim world. Both have refined and recalibrated their political strategy, both don’t have unity in the name of faith. This modern crusade avatar is where the western Christian world is using brute force to impose their world view in the middle east while the Muslim world is leveraging western liberal society to impose their control from within. The world is headed for some interesting times.
Once the USA has intervened, instability has reigned, violence continues and the so-called peace, democracy, prosperity has never happened.
Iran since the Islamic revolution of 1979 has officially adopted the elimination of Israel as a core part of its foreign policy and wants its destruction. Iran has actively supported and funded the Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis, Al Qaida, Palestine jihad, Syrian and Yemeni terrorist groups since long and created challenges for the global order. When even other Arab nations like Saudi Arabia, UAE who have also for long opposed Isarel/ Jews changed and accepted their existence, Iran has been steadfast in its objectives. Interesting reading below.
Iran has for long worked to acquire nuclear weapons and have received covert help from Pakistan and North Korea apart from others. Given their foreign policy doctrine, the nervousness of most nations on what Iran might do if it had a nuclear bomb is understandable. That Israel is paranoid about Iran’s nuclear ambitions can be debated but not dismissed.
India and Iran:
History shows a very chequered path.
- Iran under the Shah supported Pakistan even as hundreds of Iranian students studied in India
- In 1979, India did not welcome the Islamic revolution.
- Post the revolution Iran in 1990 spoke about the Muslim community receiving a harsher treatment by quoting Kashmir, said truth/justice were silenced and the world was watching this in cold blood.
- In 1991 Iran was critical of India citing human rights abuse in Kashmir
- The President of Iran visiting India in 1995 spoke about Indian secularism.
- In 2005 and again 2010, India voted against Iran at the IAEA and Iran equated Kashmir with Gaza, Iraq, Afghanistan.
- In 2012 Iran planted a car bomb in Delhi trying to kill the family of an Israeli diplomat and India winked at this by making polite noises with no action.
- Between 2016 and 2024 Iran raised the issue of Kashmir with the President of Solvenia, recommended that Iranian judiciary legally intervene in India. spoke of Muslim sufferings, urged the Muslim world to support Kashmir and repudiate oppressors and tyrants.
- Iran supported India in a UNHCR meeting and offered to mediate the Kashmir issue.
- Post 2001 after PM Vajpayee, PM Modi travelled to Iran in 2016 to sign agreements on the development of the Chabahar port with no PM visiting Iran in the interim.
- Congress is vociferous in support of Iran with no action, BJP demonstrates support with nothing vocal.
These leave us confused and confounded about the India/Iran relationship. It seems to be purely transactional involving oil & gas, Iran’s reaction to India based on the Pakistan/ Saudi Arabia relationship. The views range from harsh criticism against India to a middle path. The Indian Govt seems to calibrate their relationship with Iran, based on the Shia/Sunni divide in India and their influence in Kashmir.
Iran – Israel – USA War:
With most nations in the middle east either co-opted or pushed to anarchy, the last nation standing in the region is Iran. If Iran had been more reasonable towards Israel, allowed western investment and in turn invested in the west, the west would have turned a blind eye, even if Iran was brutal and orthodox with its citizens.
Whether there was immediate provocation to justify this attack, we will not know for some time. What is worrisome is that Israel/USA are dealing with a bunch of folks for whom death is martyrdom, a glory. USA will not like American bodybags; Iran will celebrate Iranian body bags.
Shia majority Iran is a historical civilisation called Persians. They have centuries of history, culture and language. All Shia’s are NOT Persians, and all Persians are NOT Shia’s, they are NOT Arabs and prior to the 16th century Persians were dominantly Sunni. That’s why maybe they have not blended into the larger Muslim world. Above all, they are not stupid.
Like a Hindi film dialogue – “You started the game, I will finish it” – the Iran govt would have factored this eventuality in their strategy. Just as Israel planned for survival against the adversaries around, Iran has done the same. What that strategy is, we don’t know. Between Israel/USA the amount of intelligence gathered would be humungous, but how the adversary will react will not be known. The responses so far demonstrate this. Can Iran win a war against 12 countries simultaneously? Highly unlikely, but they have attacked 11 countries and the economic impact on these nations and the world at large is profound. One can call it madness, but do we know if there is a method in the madness?
The future is fraught with danger since the feeling one gets is that the USA/Israel have gone into combat with no exit plan. There are no boots on the ground for regime change. Iran is not a tinpot dictatorship. It has a command-and-control system, layers of leadership. Iran has a Parliament, team of experts, a President, Guardian council, expediency council, and a Supreme leader above all this. They may ultimately go down, but will take others with them, but, what goes down with them will be the trillion-dollar question only time will tell.
Iran has little sympathy globally and in the Muslim world. Netanyahu has played Trump like a harp but is silent unlike Trump. It would take a miracle for Trump and USA to come out of this smelling good. Their biggest enemy is themselves since any negotiation must be one where both sides feel they could have done better, they lost something, but both claim victory. USA in the last 1 year has rubbed everybody from Europe, India, China to Cuba, Greenland and Venezuela the wrong way. Trump wants total unadulterated victory where the other side must be publicly told they lost, were defeated and above all he expects them to acknowledge that. Expecting this to happen with Iran is a pipedream.
This explains why most other nations are wary and not exactly clapping. The only victors in this whole episode would be the Chinese and Russians who will exploit this major Trump faultline and then sit back to watch with popcorn in hand. India? The Govt and opposition will both likely get the masala they want, and Indians will reach for the popcorn too to watch the Indian political circus.
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