Random Musings - May 2025

Trump Trade Tariff Time Tact Tantrum

USA was veering towards the left, with a high woke quotient, was dangerously poised, even if those who felt so were called crazy. Anti semitism was rampant in top universities but anyone pointing that out was branded Islamophobic. The rules of the society were changing right from definition of gender and anyone talking to the common man in USA, reading their comments could feel the undercurrent of discomfort in a society that was famed for its freedom, and openness.

If anybody has any doubts about the past, just see this picture I clicked in New York in August 2015 - just 10 years back. Today such a poster would result in riots and god knows what phobia court cases. 

USA was funding NATO disproportionately to protect European Union which between NettZero and other socialistic idealistic programs was in danger of losing its identity itself. Hypocrisy, craziness and lack of self-awareness was rampant. China was taking USA for the ride of its life as it marched towards global hegemony. Policies of USA Govts and the greed of its corporate sector over decades was the root cause of the current situation, especially with China, but no political leader had the gumption to call this out and try to change the direction.

Trump spoke all the right things, including about ending wars and with some luck, ended up winner and POTUS. His ideas and thoughts were logical on many issues and if pursued in the right manner could have put him in the history books as a hero.

Trade was something he seriously took up and his stated objectives were correct. Trade is a ship that is huge, cannot change course overnight. The complexities of course correction are such, it needs the patience of a dentist removing that troublesome tooth. It needs multiple strategies, discussions, constant changes in direction before one can arrive at a decision and THEN would take time to translate into results. One needs 5 to 10 years to bring this change. Above all, Trade always involves two parties, and both need to play the game to declare victory jointly.

Tariff was the buzzword that Trump employed to force change in Trade towards becoming more favourable towards USA. Demanding that USA companies move manufacturing to USA from China, India, Vietnam etc was all fine as a policy intent but this shift will take years. The target should have been to encourage manufacturing in USA, not demand shifting it to USA. If anyone thinks USA has the talent, manpower, to start assembling electronic products or readymade garments tomorrow morning, they live in LaLa land. The manufacturing ship sailed from USA long back skipping 2 to 3 generations and the current generation will look for an App to do that work. Forget 10% even 1000% Tariff cannot bring change in the next 5 years.

Meanwhile, wars don’t stop overnight. Humungous ego’s and stupidity of citizens are involved. However idealistic peace is as a concept, and demanded by citizens, if a nation at war stops it, the very same citizens will term that government as cowards, failures for surrendering to the “enemy”. This result will be termed as a defeat of the nation. Politicians are NOT stupid by any stretch of imagination. They know the people far better than the people themselves. Again, stopping any war, will take time where both sides can proclaim victory loudly.

Time is exactly what Trump does not have and he knows that very well. Trial balloons on a 3rd term were floated and realisation dawned that 2028 would be the full stop. Trump has just 4 years to bring change and be a hero where he needs 10 years. The result is that Trump and his team seem to have decided to do what is an old joke – speed up the delivery of a child that takes 9 months by putting more men on the job. The man has been in power for hardly 4 months – and is demanding to see the baby going to school.

Trump is in a tearing hurry to show at least one victory, loud cheer and is anything but the patient dentist. Right now, Trump is that dentist using a hammer to remove that tooth in a minute so he can wave the victory flag.

THIS is where Trump has miserably failed as of now – deciding that he does not have the time for Tact and Tantrum is the answer. Trump was never a politician, he was a businessman, aggressive and his views – whether right or wrong – have been consistent over decades on every issue, and diplomacy was never his strong point in life. Trump 1.0 did not see Tantrums but the election results in 2020 made him angry.

Every effort of Trump in the last 4 months have been a disaster for just one reason – lack of Tact – rather than mature, measured diplomacy and effort. The public humiliation of Zelenskyy (even if that comedian deserves that kind of treatment), the tariff war with China that became a joke, the Russia Ukraine war that is not ending, the stand off with EU, the unnecessary humiliation of Ramaphosa without reason or the advance announcement of a ceasefire in the India Pakistan conflict - Trump has managed to end up with egg on his face every time. Trump in his desperate hurry of needing at least one victory within days after becoming POTUS has managed to stumble every single time. If his lack of tact in dealing with the Harvard, Columbia kind of folks is not having a blowback, it is because people at large agree with the way these institutions are being treated. They wanted someone to talk tough with them.

The only 2 nations that seem to have massaged his tantrums are Qatar by gifting a fancy Jet, made in USA and Pakistan that signed a crypto deal with his family. A couple of Gulf nations have announced investments which they would have anyway been making regularly in the USA markets.

Trump needs to have patience, Tact, decide at least 3 important targets with a reasonable time target of, say, 18 months. A trade deal with India/ EU, diplomatic efforts between Ukraine/Russia and getting the USA corporate sector to kick start local manufacturing in different sectors at least partially can be reasonable targets. This way he can demand a loud cheer for his efforts by using quiet diplomacy rather than bluster since the world can afford to wait for 48 months, but Trump cannot. As an American friend said, Trump can be the best POTUS, if we take away the mike, his SM and say, no talking in public.

The big question – will he change? The answer at this moment seems to be no. Trump if he is to avoid going down in history as a joke or ending up as a zero needs to change.

Operation Sindoor:

A week is a long time in politics and an hour is a long time in war. Its too early to ruminate on Operation Sindoor since officially it is just paused and not ended. There is no ceasefire but only stoppage of firing. There are no meeting points between India and Pakistan and Trump has definitely not helped. Any treatise on this can only be much later and not now.

Meanwhile Indian politics is undergoing a churn that is beyond logic – Pakistan is using as evidence comments, videos of Congress leaders globally to get their viewpoint across while India is attempting to use satellite images and such for their viewpoint. The rest of the Indian political opposition is displaying a measured silence whatever their internal opinions maybe.

Rahul Gandhi is upping the ante on the issue and where he will stop, what will be the outcome is anybody’s guess. The spectacle is far beyond a popcorn munching entertainment for the citizens since amongst other things his eco-system is actively accusing the External Affairs Minister, National Security Advisor of being “traitors” helping Pakistan while accusing the Prime Minister of not sharing intelligence with security agencies and allowing the Pahalgam terror attack to happen.

Trying to debate these accusations is beyond logic or even commonsense. For example that the PM did not share intel with the security agencies – who actually give him the intel in the first place – is beyond the ability of any human to debate.

• Eric Gercetti the USA Ambassador to India and not exactly a admirer of the Modi govt described Ajit Doval in 2013 as an “international treasure".
• His competence was legendary leading to his appointment as the IB chief by the Congress government in 2004 under Manmohan Singh.
• Kirti Chakra is a military award given during peacetime, the equivalent of Mahavir Chakra given during war and Ajit Doval was the first policeman to get this award – under the PM Rajiv Gandhi in 1988. 
  
• Ajit Doval was also given the Indian Police medal just 6 years into his career, when the average is around 17 years and this exception was made by India Gandhi then PM for his remarkable work in Mizoram.

• Dr. Jaishankar was the Indian Ambassador to China and USA under the Manmohan Singh govt between 2009-2014 and played a key role with Manmohan Singh who signed the Nuclear deal, other landmark agreements like Defence Framework, 123 Agreement and Open Skies.
• Under Manmohan Singh he also successfully handled with China the border standoff, stapled visas, and Arunachal Pradesh/ Aksai Chin map issues.
• Under Rajiv Gandhi he was the political adviser to the IPKF in Sri Lanka. 
  

That Rahul Gandhi now repeatedly accuses these two of treason is for reasons and logic known only to himself and time will tell what impact these have on the reputation of the Congress party in India – both with the voters and the rest of the opposition.

The two defining outcomes of the Pahalgam terror attack and Operation Sindoor are 1) How India challenged and called out the Nuclear Blackmail of Pakistan – successfully. This threat is largely defanged even if this threat remains. It is no longer something that will define the India Pakistan relationship in future conflicts 2) The other is the decades old Aman Ki Aasha argument was finally cremated as even the liberal secular lobby accepted reality.

The one defining image, though old, was the Pakistan PM gesticulating and promising that Pakistan will overtake India – demonstrating its obsession about India – instead of focussing on itself. Pakistan defines itself, its very existence and identity on an India fixation. That explains why Pakistan is unlikely to change anytime soon. They need to dehyphenate from India – mentally and emotionally.

Stupidity & Self Awareness:

Operation Sindoor saw Pakistan use Drones supplied by Turkey. The social media went berserk, demanding ending diplomatic relations with Turkey, many a travel agency had to prove themselves to be more Indian than they were and cancelled bookings etc. Understandable anger and emotion, and valid. But this also needs self-awareness.

• Russia has delivered attack helicopters, anti-tank missiles etc to Pakistan.
• China delivers close to 80% of the Pakistani military requirements including fighter jets.
• USA has delivered immense amount of defence equipment including F16’s and millions of dollars’ worth spares recently.

Anybody demanding ending diplomatic relations with USA, China, Russia ? Wait, my family lives in USA, my trade is with Chinese goods and it’s the S400 systems and Sukhoi’s from Russia that get me excited. I will hence shut up.

Ultimately its all a matter of money, honey and self interest. Idealism is screamed loudest where these are missing. Sure, please do boycott Turkey, but don’t look stupid when doing so, be also self aware.

By the way, when we buy stuff online, how often do we check if the product is of Chinese origin and if there is an Indian or even other options available? Just reducing Chinese purchases where we can without being hurt, can reduce the trade imbalance with China. Why not do that? Walk the talk.

I write this on an American brand laptop, manufactured in China, certified by Indian agencies, using American software with code written by many Indians, using a Russian anti virus system, a Indian mouse with likely Chinese electronic imports, as I check the Indian time on my Japanese watch and check for messages on my Chinese phone. That’s being self-aware.