Modi Govt end of term view 2019 - Part 3

Kashmir:

It is nobody’s case except those who had a personal stake in the older eco system and policies, that continuance of Art 370 was a perversity. Pakistan absorbed the areas it had captured in 1948 within itself, gave away large tracts of land to China and left just a sliver of land as a dispute across the border. India, even after the Himalayan blunder of vacillating and delaying military action in 1948 not only created this pernicious Art 370 but subsisted with it for 75 years. The BJP and its earlier avatar Jan Sangh, red flagged this and opposed it since 1948, demanding its removal. The Modi Govt achieved this target after 75 years and bifurcated the state.

Making Ladakh a UT was key especially since the Chinese attack and as a border area, the central Govt had to maintain complete control. While one can debate converting J & K as a UT, instead of the state that it was, again this is a strategic move. The bar for a future non-BJP Govt to revert to the old system of having a border state without central control needed to be made high. A future Govt wanting to bring back Art 370 in a different avatar would find it difficult to convert the UT into a state without attracting people’s protests.

Few realised, when the BJP decided to join hands with the Mufti family to form the Govt in J&K, the intent was to get the inside track to the state administration and the shenanigans before gaining confidence to pull the rug and put in motion action to remove Art 370. A political masterstroke.

While one can debate if by removing Art 370 there is peace in the valley, one must understand that even earlier, barring for certain districts the rest of J & K was “peaceful”. However, the writ of the criminals in those few districts could extend to other parts thanks to a complicit state Govt. Today, with its removal the force of peace is being exerted across the state. Funds can be controlled with no leakage for terrorists, their families, friends across the border etc. Ultimately, barring for honest to God ideological fights, every fight that is violent, is only about the money. Stop the money, the violence stops, as seen in Kashmir. That the Congress leader Rahul Gandhi could walk into Lal Chowk in Srinagar and hoist the national flag with public all around, which his party had not been able to do for decades without security cordoning off the area, speaks volumes of the impact. 

Aatmanirbhar:

This is one policy, especially given events like Covid, Ukraine Russia war, Israel Hamas war, that has proved to be a game changer for the Indian economy. When announced, it was interpreted as a backwards step towards discouraging imports, foreign entities, and such. It took a while before investors understood that it meant self-reliance. The emphasis on this brought in significant capacity, technology and activity that the Indian economy has weathered the external storms well.

During Modi 1.0 the Govt converted the moribund planning commission, a relic of the colonial past, into a policy and vision creating body called Niti Aayog by blooding the organisation with top notch professionals who joined the government on contract to both learn the ways of the Govt, but also contribute to policy making. Highly qualified youngsters with their energy, passion and eagerness to learn, ably supported by a leadership that encouraged fresh thought, their impact on policy making by all states has been humungous. States no longer jump at something just because it’s the flavour of the day. There is research done since reports published by Niti Aayog give so much information that states can take informed decisions.

Once again, an organisation created in 2009 by Congress Govt, but never heard of by anyone – called Invest India – was re-invented and leveraged to support global and local investors navigate the systems, procedures and get hand holding help across the chain of investment. The organisation is staffed with brilliant minds from the best universities globally, and locally, knowledge of foreign languages, sector experience, subject matter knowledge etc. They are young, happening, in tune with modern times, speak a “lingo” that most will identify with and with a hunger to do big things. Suddenly a Govt agency becomes a welcoming watering hole for investors who find the interactions pleasantly different from the usual Govt departments. “First impression” is the best impression gets re-enforced widely.  

Invest India Website

Corruption:

It is to the credit of the Modi Govt that there has not been a single scam till now. It would be delusional to claim there is no corruption – every country has corruption except you don’t see it easily. The perception that corruption has significantly reduced is high, more by anecdotal and popular gossip.

What critics don’t understand, is that in the decade preceding this Govt, there was “corruption within corruption” as I term it. Those who have an exposure to how corruption works will testify that the level of honesty, ethics, trust and integrity is of the highest order in corrupt dealings and these parameters had been compromised. Today, as the man himself says – the Neeyat (which conveys a whole new meaning compared to its English translation), meaning motivation (or one say hidden agenda) is honest and sincere. Technically, in this scenario, one can even be corrupt, but if the hidden agenda is honest, the outcome would be beneficial, and the public perception would be honesty.

Corruption, Favoritism, Nepotism can never be the end goal of a Govt or political party but can be benefits realised during the course of honest projects, programs and schemes that benefit the nation. Modi, in his entire career, never has a political opponent accused him of being corrupt personally. This branding adds to the reputation of a Govt.

This reputation has had a humungous effect in defence deals. The ghost of Bofors had gripped the entire Govt of India eco-system for 25+ years in such a manner that the nation just didn’t buy anything, nobody wanted to decide anything and there was paralysis politically and administratively. While it took the Rafale deal to make the system start exorcising the ghosts, it was only by 2019 that the system became normal, and since then, the ghost has been completely driven out.

Dynasty, Diversity and Continuity:

When Modi 1.0 came in, the Govt did not have any option but to use a big broom to clean the augean stables of the old eco-system, since it would be impossible to bring change. This meant inexperienced ministers barring for a few. Unfortunately, fate snatched away at least 3 brilliant minds in Arun Jaitley, Sushma Swaraj and Manohar Parrikar. They often carried burdens far higher than normal. 3 others flowered under the Modi leadership given that they were well known - Nitin Gadkari, Rajnath Singh and Piyush Goyal – and they have fired brilliantly on all cylinders. New talent bloomed under a patient and planned training ground, even if they attracted negative media attention – Nirmala Sitharaman, Gen VK Singh, Smriti Irani. Many who had a good reputation since long and felt to be experienced and able political leaders failed and were quietly dropped – Ravishankar Prasad, Uma Bharati, Maneka Gandhi, Sadanand Gowda, Harshvardhan, Prakash Javdekar to name a few.

If at one level dynasty was royally ignored/ swept aside in Maneka/ Varun Gandhi, the Modi Govt never hesitated to show realpolitik by bringing on-board external talent like JM Scindia and professionals like Ashwini Vaishnaw, Dr Jaishankar, Hardeep Puri, RK Singh, Rajeev Chandrashekar, who have made a mark and contributed very effectively to the ministry. Suddenly from a low talent Modi 1.0, we now have a good talent Modi 2.0. One dynastic politician who has been a revelation is JM Scindia, who, even if a minister in the Congress Govt, never created the impression of being a go getter administrator. Perception was of one more dynast who was also a royal to boot, having fun and living at tax payer expense. As a Minister in Modi 2.0 he has excelled and demonstrated the ability to lead from the front. Once again an example of excellent “execution” unlike under Congress. Incidentally the Modi doctrine on dynasty has never been about family not entering politics, it has been about NOT converting their position, leadership, including the constituency itself as a hereditary right with different family members.

The other key strategy has been continuity. Nitin Gadkari has been handling the same ministry since 2014 and the entire nation unanimously agrees on the brilliant, aggressive growth shown in infrastructure development. It is unparalleled in Indian history.  The man has literally created a miracle. Efficient leaders like Amit Shah, Rajnath Singh have been bringing about changes in the key ministries of Home and Defence with a long-term vision that they can translate to reality owing to this continuity.

Finally, whatever the harping of the critics, 7 leaders have been a standout given their limited political experience as ministers – Nirmala Sitharaman, Smriti Irani, Gen VK Singh, Piyush Goyal, Hardip Singh Puri, Ashwini Vaishnaw and Rajeev Chandrashekar. If Nirmala navigated important ministries like Commerce, Defence before leading Finance, Piyush, Smriti have been helming important ministries and creating an impact even as they continue to develop as Minister leaders. Gen VK Singh seems to have simply stepped from a uniformed battle ground to a larger battle ground where he is right there in the front in every crisis be it Yemen, Ukraine or the Tunnel collapse. He stands tall literally as a frontline soldier handling every crisis with military planning and precision. Others have brought in their domain and technical knowledge to helm the ministries. 

Jobs:

India has always been a nation with low organised sector jobs and significant levels of self-employment. Even today many Govt schemes are about aiding/ creating self-employment. The service sector with Infotech grew fast and furious creating an uneven growth, expectation and even popular economists encouraged this policy. Where they erred is not encouraging manufacturing and other services related industries where a different set of technical skill sets are needed. India has been very slow and has a lag of over 25 years.

Manufacturing is key for multiple reasons. Apart from absorbing less educated but skilled youths, it also helps in creating opportunities for the labour otherwise dependent on farming which is seasonal and who easily get “addicted” to the freebies which don’t teach them to fish. Some welfare states like Tamil Nadu have seen the negative impact of such policies, even if they refuse to accept it. Case in point – a state that has always been at the forefront of fighting a Anti Hindi battle, today, even the hinterlands cannot survive without knowing Hindi, since majority of their labour are from Northeast, Bihar, UP etc. The ministers can spew whatever rhetoric, but at the end of the day, they can’t survive without employing “external” manpower. Only Manufacturing can create a large number of blue-collar jobs for the skilled youth of this nation.

This is work in progress, much more could have been done. Changing the mindset of investors and policy makers have been challenging. Electronics manufacturing, even if assembly oriented has grown but other sectors of the manufacturing chain also need to grow. While Modi 2.0 did focus and show success in this segment, the next Govt in 2024 will need to push this aggressively from day one. Its a dichotomy that the economy grows faster than the jobs created - but then Covid also taught the world that one can live with less and do more. 

Two key policies which the Congress Govt in its usual economic strategy of benevolence introduced – laws relating to Land and Labour – unless changed, cannot catalyse the growth in manufacturing. Both of these will need urgent political attention and will attract negative attention, however well-meaning the changes. The next Govt in 2024, expecting it is Modi 3.0 will need to get the BJP ruled states enact Land laws that encourage manufacturing without having to takeover farmland. The assumption that India has enough land to support horizontal growth is a myth. Like Singapore, vertical growth in manufacturing with innovative factory designs is eminently possible and would reduce investments, since the cost of land reduces instead of steeply increasing by speculation. Labour laws being a concurrent subject, Modi 3.0 can nudge with a combination of new laws implemented by BJP ruled states and create pressure on the opposition states.

Modi Govt end of term view 2019 Part 4