Indian Covid Battle

As the world ushered in 2020 nobody except maybe a few knew what was in store and coming. Even those who knew what was coming may not have fully grasped the impact of their actions. Someday in the future hopefully the truth of what happened, why, how and by who will be known. Till then we just need to live with the current reality and grapple with it as best as we can.

Statistics of course always tell a story and its tempting to analyse data and jump to whatever hypothesis a writer may want to present. But that would take away the human factor amidst this pandemic.

I have not travelled the globe during the pandemic, seen or experienced anything to say who did what, who did better, why etc. But one does read, see even if one does not listen to the commentariat who are busy espousing their views as news.

When the pandemic started the logical assumption was that advanced western countries with far greater infrastructure (number of beds and such statistics again), far better knowledge, far higher resources, robust systems would do well. Many a global expert rushed in even where devils fear to tread and hopped from TV station to TV station predicting millions of deaths in India, people lying dead on the streets, a chaos that one would only see in some Hollywood special effects disaster movie with that elusive hero and heroine nowhere to be seen. Today the situation is far different than what one expected and contrary to the logical assumptions in the beginning its is the poor, impoverished, backward, developing kind of countries that have done far better than anybody else.

The cynical experts attribute this to the dirty, unhygienic societies of these countries, even the weather for performing better and actually make a virtue out of even this backwardness and it is very possible they may be right but that would be missing the point. Some others blame poor and even total lack of statistics, lack of testing, bluffing on all numbers by the governments and again they may have a point, but they again miss the wood for the trees.

One reason for this kind of ham handed analysis is the virtues of being richer, better off, more powerful and when one is confined to their safe and secure homes without having to worry about anything then delusion is a natural outcome and you start to virtue signal your own behaviour – that you are saving other lives by your responsible behaviour.

A quick trip to the 1918 pandemic will show that the pandemic finally came under control because the poor, the deprived, downtrodden ventured out, took the risks with their lives, and tried to keep an economy going so that their richer fellow citizens could get their milk, coffee, bread, fruits, meat, shampoo, face cream, even their mobile and internet connections, electricity, water etc. These people keep a whole supply chain moving from commodities to utilities and if anybody they need the accolades for saving a nation.

This is not to criticise or overly appreciate either group of citizens but to point out that extraordinary circumstances create extraordinary efforts and extraordinary people and to applaud one or blame another is both immature and silly.

Right at the beginning of the pandemic on 11th April I said – any decision is a wrong decision only in hindsight. Everybody, every govt was groping in the dark and facing unexpected situations and they handled it as best as they could. They failed in some, did well in some and in hindsight some decisions have been good, others a disaster.

To talk about India and what we did is easier to talk about and a lesson in disaster management – especially a disaster that has not been documented, no standard operating procedure established, people not trained with mock drills. As a student of management, the biggest lesson that I took away from this pandemic was – no organisation, govt or society must become so system driven, so disciplined that it takes away the native intelligence, the improvisations, the crowd sourcing, the bottom of the pyramid efforts, the basic human instincts which are crucial for the well being of a country.

Without seeming to make a virtue of what India lacks in systems, again from hindsight, I see how the govt did far better than what it would otherwise have because people did stuff that helped. This likely also explains why poor, impoverished countries did better than the advanced countries – not because of the benefits of living in filth and squalor as explained by some, but because everybody put in an effort, did stuff and the combined efforts created a force multiplier effect.

In any crisis 3 things happen 1) The fear and anxiety of the unknown created in the mind that can trigger all kinds of behaviour 2) The feeling of being alone, abandoned, hungry creating fear and anxiety 3) The insecurity that nobody is in control and the country as we see it around us is like a runaway train without a driver at the wheel, again creating fear and anxiety. Between these 3 all of which create fear and anxiety and thus have a cascading effect the end result can be disastrous. What happened in India – and this is NOT about politics – is a lesson in disaster management.

The first lockdown was announced at such short notice that nobody had time to create any back up plans. But by then the government had planned some events that created a certain peace of mind, an acceptance of such a decision with things like voluntary curfew. People were eased into the situation rather then dumped.

At the bottom of the pyramid as supplies were disrupted one saw innovation, improvisation at its best. Some farmers with flowers, fruits, vegetables simply drove around localities selling them thus ensuring a semblance of normalcy. Local grassroot politicians galvanised their cadre into collecting food stuff and distributing them to those in need. Maybe 5 or 10% did suffer but the important fact is that 90 ~ 95% got food grains and they did not starve.

The local area corporators sent out rickshaws that sprayed disinfectant – never mind that logically and scientifically they were useless – on roads, drains etc and most people felt that someone was doing something, someone was in control and hopefully this would help.

As infections spread India moved from nation to state to district to city lockdowns such that economic activity resumed but at the same time one could see visible efforts which created confidence. Soon these moved to area quarantine, roads being quarantined and finally homes being quarantined. Between April and June within a space of 3 months a nation had traversed the lockdown journey from nation to home – no mean feat this.

Vitamin C, Zinc, Multi vitamins, Turmeric, Ginger, Steam inhalation, Ayurvedic herbs, Homeopathic concoction, Oxymeters, BP, many more and nothing was taboo. Either you were advised by a Whatsapp forward or the friendly neighbourhood elder, the benignly smiling doctor, even your maid, driver and pushcart seller and everybody rushed to do whatever was suggested. Especially if that suggestion was embellished with that miracle story of how someone lived when doctors gave up hope. Never mind if these had little scientific or logical basis, the point was that people believed them, did them and no doctor told them they were being stupid.

During this pandemic the political leadership was all over the place. Never mind whether they were canvassing their presence or actually doing some work, their very presence created confidence. A PM addressed the nation many times and even if they were mocked as silly, stupid he kept the citizens lighting lamps, banging vessels, whistling, clapping at specific times. Nobody felt alone let alone abandoned and everybody felt that everybody was together in this crisis. Above all a strong sense of confidence that somebody was in control prevailed.

Railway compartments, Convention halls, schools, apartment complex parking lots anything that could be converted into a “hospital” for care was done. Whether very few or many were used did not matter but everybody felt that they had a “hospital” to be treated in. In some cases, local politicians arranged that a home Covid kit that included a small oxygen cylinder would be supplied for emergencies. I did not actually see these given but just that information created confidence.

By a mixture of bullying, cajoling, requesting, acting funny, dressing up in costumes, singing, dancing, play acting the local police ensured that every last person tried to behave responsibly, did not feel alone and even if the funnier ones went viral for the comedy, they had an extremely soothing effect on the populace. But for such efforts the dire predictions of the experts could have well come true. That a disaster did not happen in Asia’s biggest slum Dharavi is a case in point.

However much criticised the more mature political leaders realised that in such disasters the situation could change 180 degrees and so they frequently changed, reversed decisions taken few hours earlier. As usual the experts laughed, scoffed at these U turns and incompetence as they called it but come election time these experts will be wondering why people voted exactly opposite to their predictions and expectations. They will then blame the people maybe. But the thick-skinned politicians will have the last laugh because they understand the people at large and these expert opinions are like water off a duck’s back.

Indian doctors tried Aspirin to Remdesivir to HCQ to HIV cocktails to Plasma therapy to god know what else in battling serious cases and many lives were saved. Unlike in the advanced countries Indian doctors cared little for those expert world body opinions on what should not be done and simply went ahead and threw everything they had. Let’s not take away this credit as one of the factors that saved lives especially when you see the number of deaths in advanced countries.

Even when it came to wearing masks, again a contentious topic, understanding India, its eco system, its poor the message was not only effectively driven but more importantly personalisation and improvisation was encouraged making the effort easier to implement.

One can write reams on the events, experiences but my limited point in this effort was to say that apparent lack of systems in less developed countries has what has REALLY helped even if any of he above efforts and maybe shiploads of luck, god, filth, BCG vaccine helped. The leadership of the last mile worker in taking decisions that suited his environment based on his knowledge has actually created a huge positive effect on the overall because as is aid in the beginning his/her presence, decisions coupled with others at a larger level ensured that all three challenges in a disaster were contained, thus creating a handle on the situation and the results speak for themselves.

Many a younger politician leveraged technology to provide services and aid to the people in double quick time and some of their efforts were so brilliant and effective that one wishes they could have been replicated across the country. I would actually say that we should have a system where such ideas and plans implemented by one is adapted by others across the country as their own without political egos coming in the way.

The past is no indicator of the future in this case but once confidence is created the mind itself can fight the situation better than normal. Mind over matter is the crucial element in this pandemic.