Chinese Checkers
DISCLAIMER: This blog has NO commercial intent or any other intent except as a opportunity to share my views. Hence any pictures used here are just to demonstrate/ illustrate a point being made and these have been taken from the internet - with sincere thanks to whoever has copyright over the images.
The last few weeks apart from the Covid has seen huge sabre rattling at the border with China. There have been all kinds of demands by various people and everybody are fishing in troubled waters trying to catch whatever fish they are chasing. I decided to pick a bunch of issues and share my thoughts.
Border:
Lets face it. There is a dispute. If there was clarity there would be no dispute. A border almost always is not some great wall of China that clearly demarcates 2 sides. It’s just a line drawn on a map and as long as it is backed by satellite pictures, notice boards, etc, signed off by both parties there is clarity but there can still be disputes. And there is NO signed agreement/maps between India and China. In this situation every govt for the past 7 decades has accepted what they want to believe – both in China and India. So anyone seeking clarity today needs to get their head examined. You can only decide which version you will believe and that’s an opinion, not fact.
The Terrain:
One look at the pictures here and you will know that trying to have clarity on the border is as easy as finding clarity in mud. Further, snow, water, soil erosion, landslides and such can alter even an agreed border and create disputes. This is hostile territory for everybody.
Reasons why:
Seeing the terrain and barring for superiority in a face to face war, wars today can be fought with technology. Egos play a role – but again its mostly about money. Nations covet land and in this case many reasons have been put forth – Fresh ultra-pure water for chip manufacture, rare earths for various common use technologies and there can be other reasons that translate into money. Those who know must exploit it quickly and if you don’t, you land up with disputes over inhospitable land.
Borders change:
Borders change for various reasons. Remember – possession is nine tenths of law – including even in a border situation. Whoever chooses to build infra, roads, put up structures first – unchallenged – over time becomes owner of that area even if others claim it as their own. Here the border has changed – with every dispute. What India lost or won or retained depends on the starting point. If you take 1947 India has lost a lot owing to inaction and idealism. Let us face it, China built infra across the border areas like the Karakoram highway in 1959 and opened in 1979 and we started border infra decades later.
Read about this highway here
Now read this – ignoring opinions but reading the facts.
https://www.theweek.in/news/india/2020/06/16/as-india-china-talks-continue-1-6-workers-to-join-road-projects-in-ladakh.html#:~:text=India%2DChina%20border%20roads%20on,ahead%20for%20construction%20in%201999.
This is not about a specific area – that argument would be nit picking – this is about the fact that border area infra for whatever reason did not get any attention till a few decades ago. As long as China built a toilet to pee in the mountains, it became theirs. Irrelevant if India agreed or not.
Military stand-off and scuffle:
We can argue till the grandchildren of the cows come home but there will always be a measure of dispute on who started it, what happened. Each side will believe exactly what they want to believe.
Fact is that BOTH sides did NOT use guns, firearms in the fight. They fought hand to hand, used clubs, rods but DID NOT use guns. Read the agreement tagged below. Upto a 2 km area you CANT use firearms/guns. Appreciate the fact that BOTH SIDES honoured this agreement.
Gen Ved Malik views
Reality is there was a violent fight, India has acknowledged 20 dead, China has not shared anything. Some smart observers looking at the longer duration of the stand offs in the recent past had predicted – what if one soldier on either side snaps & takes a swing? What possible outcomes could there be? Prophetic words. Fact – shit happened & everybody’s shit stinks.
History:
We can discuss the follies of history till 2999 AD and we will still get nowhere. There is a situation now and if both China and India agree that war is not a solution, then they have a target to sit down, give/take and resolve it. History will judge Xi more than Modi because he has no opposition to answer to, no elections to win and is leader till death. He is 67, has been ruling for 8 years and can easily rule for another 20. Like it or not he can either decide to go down in history as the leader who solved this issue or he can keep the pot boiling. Strategically China is expected to do the latter. Whoever is the Indian PM by say 2040 – he will still be answering the question – Are the Chinese inside our territory?. If you disbelieve me – read this thread – 70 years back we were in a hole on this, 70 years later we are still in a hole – never mind how big or where it is. It is still a hole.
Jeff Smith Twitter Thread
Fact of the matter is that every global company in the world wants democracy, free speech, human rights, health and safety, equality, and many other things because as humans that’s how we should be. We will talk of LGBT, Women, Diversity, Minimum wages, Health insurance, Workers union, and then suddenly you go – bloody hell, there is no command and control, costs are going up, my bonus is down, the private jet is now a dream, I better do something before I drown in my own words. Answer – Go to China.
Get Real:
You can sit and dream about thrashing the Chinese army and all that. Gets nobody nowhere. You need money to fight that kind of war. Using money China has already “purchased” Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh is waiting for the right offer. They are small countries, wanting to live on EMI’s without thinking of where the money will come from. They will take the money and live happily. Who cares about the loans to be repaid in 20 to 99 years – EMI is there!. The elders who took the loan would be “dead”, the youngsters who enjoyed the loan can’t complain and will happily give away whatever the Chinese want to be free of the EMI. Even the people will not complain. Unless you have an army to army bare handed brawl you can’t fight a war and have a plan to win just because you are courageous because there is no money in the kitty. Get real.
Global economic misadventure:
Customers get cheap stuff, management bonuses went up, private jet purchased and everyone is happy. We will still talk about all the things we always do to feel good but then hey we can’t dictate what China must do. We go do audits and give fancy presentations and again everybody is happy.
Every new project is presented with a Western economy cost and a China cost. The money saved helps increase the management bonus when you go to China. Nobody, not one global management leader asked – aren’t we putting all eggs in one basket ? But then stuff gets delivered, you have nothing to object to. That today in many areas including something as critical as Pharma/Healthcare countries have willingly/happily given monopoly to China - is beyond comprehension.
The Chinese make their cities shining bright and glitzy, feed the people, send them on vacation and their people are happy because the price they pay is to shut up and not complain. They get their own Twitter, Google so they are now both proud and happy.
Bottomline is that China's trade is 4.6 Trillion $$ annually, 12.4 % of world trade and its GDP is around 19% of global GDP. 7 of the top 10 seaports globally are in China. Nobody repeat nobody globally can afford to piss off the Chinese. If they try, they will be wetting their own legs. The Chinese have used the money everybody covets to trap the world. Everybody is trapped by their own decisions. Today theoretically China can bomb its own people if they want to and not one global corporate will do zilch about it. At best they can give a lecture in Hyde park, London after flying down in their private jet having so many Chinese parts that it would be difficult not to laugh.
Banning Chinese goods:
As hare brained an idea as can be. The world is connected so deeply with global supply chains that anybody wanting to ban Chinese goods may as well go live on Mars. Not happening so live with it. However, some things are eminently possible – where China will not be hurt but will think twice before hurting India. Remember in the end its always about the money.
One is to reform economy, so India becomes attractive to various global companies to set up shop in India. Before anybody jumps to ask - No, India will not replace China and that is a daft question. India will get those investments that would be derisking from China.
Second is to encourage Indian industry to think, act global and not be focussed on the MSME mindset all the time. If you cannot think big, then you can’t grow big and we will only continue to talk big and wallow in the 3rd lie - statistics.
Thirdly in sensitive, high risk areas like telecom, defence look for global suppliers across the whole chain even if the cost is high. It is all about the mindset.
Talk less, do more:
Starting from 1959 to 2020 every single time the Chinese have taken action when least expected, done it with stealth and swiftness and taken every govt by surprise. Most Chinese infra in border areas were built when everybody was quiet. In a defensive position, you often lose the argument. Going forward, a strategic plan across the entire Indian border – be it with China, or Nepal must be put in place and infra projects started by identifying strategic and economic interests of each location.
No friends, only interests:
2020 is not 1947 when people had some idealistic notions of life. Its all about the money, nothing else. It’s OK to be friends with all neighbours but stop living in history. Consider every border be it Nepal or Bhutan as a red line. Treat them as equals and if they need help, they need to “pay” for it – in cash or kind but pay they must. Stop being the big brother – ever noticed what happens to the eldest in Indian families? Learn from your own life first. You stand up for yourself, everybody starts respecting you.
To end "The world has enough for everyone's needs, but not everyone's greed," said Mahatma Gandhi and the Chinese over the last few decades have turned that on its head to say - "China will give enough towards meeting some peoples greed"
Lastly I end with what a Chinese CEO once told me when I tried to pitch India as a manufacturing investment decision against China – “In China we have communism but no communists, In India you don’t have communism but have communists”. That slap in my face still hurts 15 years later.
Comments