Kashmir Conundrum

A Zillion words have been written and spoken about the decision of the Modi govt to abrogate Art 370/35A, bifurcate it and downgrade Kashmir to a Union Territory.

A Zillion words have been spoken and written about the many historical blunders done after that fateful day in 1947 when Raja Hari Singh signed the instrument of accession to join India, so much so that a new lexicon was coined to describe it – Himalayan Blunder.

Let’s look at the situation from a different angle that does not seem to get the desired attention. What’s so special about Art 370, what has it given to the people of Kashmir and what its removal does.  And no this is not about the legalese but the emotions, feelings and matters of the heart seen through the prism of practical politics.

Firstly, the India Pakistan partition was done with no other logic than religion – Muslims and non-Muslims broadly called Hindus.

Historically even in 1947 the area broadly had 3 distinct demographics, geographies, languages in terms of Kashmir, Jammu and Ladakh but for reasons best attributed to the list of Himalayan blunders these 3 were combined as one entity. The area looks like this today and it hasn’t changed drastically since 1947.

Region	Muslims	Non-Muslim
Jammu	31 %	69 % with 65 % Hindus
Kashmir	97 %	3 %
Ladakh	47 %	53 % with 46 % Buddhists
Overall average	67 %	33 %

Refer: https://jk.gov.in/jammukashmir/?q=demographics

Language	Percentage
Kashmiri	53 %
Hindi	21 %
Dogri	20 %
Punjabi	2 %
Others	4 %

However, Urdu is the official language of the administration when even the majority of Muslims speak Kashmiri. Further the Muslim population has about 10% Shias and they are a significant group in Ladakh as against the Kashmir valley.

Now, partition happened based on religion, formation of states on the basis of language and here we have 3 distinct demographics and people who have different reasons to call Jammu & Kashmir as home being asked to live together and you have a recipe for disaster from day 1. That the region overall had majority Muslims is fact.

And THEN we have an even more incongruous situation wherein this region is led/owned by a Hindu king. The last king ruled from 1925 till 1947, for 22 years.  Prior to that Dogra kings ruled for about a hundred years and that history from a Muslim viewpoint has been anything but positive. Yet the King signs up to go with India. This king had as his bitter rival in Sheikh Abdullah.

Now one viewpoint could even be that Nehru was being more than fair when he suggested plebiscite, promised “autonomy”, went to the UN etc and that may well have been the right way to handle things, in 1947. Bordering Pakistan this can even sound logical.

On the other hand, we must also remember that India had a significant population of Muslims at around 27% which “fell” to around 10% due to partition but has since grown to around 15%. Also very interestingly even though it does not seem to have been documented a large number of Muslims from Pakistan also moved to India during partition. Rightly or wrongly once the J&K area had been made a part of India in 1947, efforts should have been taken to integrate it into India like say Hyderabad which also had a significant Muslim population. Bengal which had already been partitioned way back in 1905 itself on Hindu/Muslim lines as West and East Bengal and West Bengal was integrated into India despite having a significant Muslim population which stands at around 27% as of 2011.

So, the strategy followed in Kashmir was flawed at so many levels right from the beginning but having taken one momentous decision the further decisions in terms of integrating it with India were flawed which as one can see was owing to egos and ambition.

Now let’s look at the possible scenarios for J&K as we now see it. The question of Jammu or Ladakh becoming a part of Pakistan even if Pakistan were to covet it would be a human rights disaster. Even if one were to look at Ladakh Muslims, they are mainly Shias and unlikely to find favour to go over to Sunni Pakistan. That leaves just the Kashmir valley as the bone of contention.

Now Kashmir has 3 options – 1) Merge with Pakistan 2) Become Independent (by claiming Jammu and Ladakh who will likely not agree 3) Stay & fully integrate with India.

Now let’s step back to 1947 for a minute. Sheikh Abdullah was ambitious, he was trying to correct the history of the Dogra rule and wanted to call himself Prime Minister – even if Kashmir was a part of India. So fully integrating with India was a challenge.  Kashmir was for centuries such a melting pot owing to the history of a Muslim majority area being ruled by Hindus that they weren’t “pure” enough to walk over to Pakistan and be accepted. Given the events in PoK, Baloch etc this has proved true in hindsight and I am sure that the Sheikh understood this, and which is why he backed India and Nehru. Read his history here - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheikh_Abdullah#Personal_life

Nehru had his ambitions, had close links to Kashmir himself and like a wily fox agreed to the special status, Art 370 etc and when he got the chance to strike back threw the Sheikh into jail downgraded the position from Prime Minister of Kashmir to Chief Minister and established his own position as the tallest leader in India. Subsequent events, the genocide in East Pakistan and the 1971 war made the Sheikh very wise and opted to become Chief Minister in 1975 but with the ego dressed up under the fig leaf of Art 370.

From then on, the situation in Kashmir has been one of wanting to correct history, wise in hindsight and that brings us back to the options as realised by the local leaders there.

1.       Joining Pakistan is a disaster since the Kashmiri Muslims will find themselves marginalised and their economy isn’t in too great a shape either.

2.       Becoming independent is a bigger disaster since they have nothing to call revenue and with years of militancy, they cannot attract foreign investment. The squabbling between the Abdullahs, Muftis, Lones and the Hurriyat will mean that none have a chance to defend the state and within days Pakistan would simply over run them and possibly even get killed. All 4 factions know this but won’t tell you.

3.       That leaves staying with India as the only viable option – both security and economy wise but under the fig leaf of Art 370.

Everybody and his uncle knows that Art 370 as it stands today is a tattered fig leaf. But to the different factions it gives them 3 major advantages – 1) Power to be divided and shared between themselves completely 2) All expenses borne by India and using the security excuse they live lavish lifestyles 3) There is no accountability on what is spent.

Now which politician will want to give this away easily? Maintaining the fig leaf of Art 370 they have allowed it to be torn by successive amendments leaving it to as an illusion. However, for 7 decades they have sold this dream of “freedom” “independence” “autonomy” to the people and any lack of development blamed on Hindu India. When they started riding this pussy cat, little did they know it was actually a Tiger’s cub. Today they are riding a tiger and can neither get off nor control it. Worse, if they were to accept the new reality that integrating with India is the best option, they need to accept what a “Hindu” Prime Minister Modi is willing to do. They also know that no other secular “Hindu” (read Congress) is willing to do this since they are not riding the “tiger” but feeding the “tiger” to keep it off their back, keeping the various factions busy fighting to prevent being eaten by the “tiger” and sharing the feast served to the tiger and with those who ride it. Now when someone has a ringside seat to this performing circus why would they want to change status quo. Remember the gladiator sports in history and you will see Kashmir – the gladiators being the Abdullahs, Muftis, Lones, Hurriyat etc and the VIP audience – secularists from India and all paid for by the citizens - Indians.

Further the Kashmir valley has divided itself into the elites and others. The elites have understood the game being played and rather than control the “tiger” they have learnt to ride it as their secular masters keep feeding it and themselves. Any opposition would mean that the “maneater tiger” next door can step in and eat them. As it is their secular friends maintain enough relationship with the “maneater tiger” to ensure that everybody is in control while they watch the circus.  

Having sold the dream of “azaadi” as a viable option to the citizens of the land, the different factions now realise that they not only have to dismount the tiger but also shut it in a cage. Again, nobody but a govt led by Modi will help them and accepting that is like the end of their centuries old dream – correct the historical shackles of Hindu rule. Also, they will no longer get free meals, they must earn their meal like others. They have forgotten how. So, the only option is to keep status quo – have Art 370 even if everybody knows that it is only an illusion. Also, you can’t tell the people that it is an illusion since the audience will lynch them.

The secular Cong which fed both the “tigers” so far has now backed into the cage hoping to protect itself and the alternative before them is to get locked in. Hence, they need Art 370 to protect themselves, to stay and fight another day. But the Modi govt has thrown open the gates and the “tiger” as well as the “maneater tiger” smell blood. Which is the blood these two get, what they will eat is as yet unclear.

The Modi govt is promising the “tiger” a life of freedom and food when required but till such time the “tiger” tastes this it is unlikely to accept this promise. The “maneater tiger” will provoke the “tiger”, try to make common cause hoping to entice it, scare the audience by charging at them but for a change instead of the gladiators, it’s the VIP audience that is ready with swords drawn and the rest of the audience are now cheering even louder than before.

Therein lies the Kashmir conundrum.