Himalayan Blunders of Congress & Rahul Gandhi in LS Elections 2019

It’s easy to be wise after the event. But sometimes some things are so easy to predict that it takes a very high degree of being intellectually blind sighted to not see it. The voter has spoken and how. Congress is decimated, SP/BSP combine got thrashed and opinion makers will give you complex PhD thesis to explain this. Those that had an open mind, could see the writing on the wall as these tweets would show from April 2019. This was not luck, just an OPEN mind.

Whether the opposition Congress led UPA had a chance in the first place to return to power is moot but could they have done better is an important question. The answer is yes, only if the opposition and Congress under Rahul Gandhi had strategized well. This election was not about bad strategy in hindsight, it was known as height of foolishness from day one. That no one thought it fit to tell the emperor that he had no clothes on is obvious. That they actually strutted around like peacocks, as if they were dressed like Ranveer Singh, all the while being stripped to the skin is more funny than tragedy. But when you wear blinkered glasses, have a narrative to defend, you miss entire forests for the tree you seek.

Here is where the narrative and strategy went wrong - the Himalayan blunders.

Demonetisation:

This election does NOT mean that demonetisation was the best decision, that it did not hurt people, economy etc. Let’s understand this a bit better.

The POOR did get hurt by the decision, but not because they had sacks full of money to lose. The workers in SME’s did not lose jobs because SME’s didn’t have money. Reality is that the rural economy – poor farmers, landless labourers, marginalised – were dependent on the rich landlord, pawn broker, money lender, political broker for their everyday life. They had been exploited for decades and had come to accept their fate. When DeMo happened these rich and landed and salary by cash SME owners lost money, and in turn were unable to continue their support to those who were forced to survive on their terms. That is why the poor farmer, landless labourer, marginalised folks suffered but knowing the decades of suffering these very people had subjected them to, they did not protest DeMo. This was sweet karmic revenge by a man called Modi. They internally cheered.

Simultaneously a slew of programs like Jan Dhan, Mudra, DBT, Insurance with bank accounts etc meant that the pain was lessened. They saw that Modi was attempting to alleviate their pain and giving them options. They knew this could not happen overnight but when their smarter neighbour leveraged a scheme and climbed out of the pit their confidence on the man Modi grew. Yes, farmer distress was a reality but not for the reasons touted by self-appointed economists and social scientists. They saw changes like Neem coating of Urea, soil cards, etc and were confident about change without being beholden to some broker. People are not foolish and knew this clean up could not happen overnight. So, they kept their confidence in this man Modi.

For most social scientists, globally funded jholawallahs poverty is serious business.  Without poverty their very existence, global conference trips, sound bites on TV, media applause would cease. So, they have a vested interest to keep poverty alive and kicking.  This was the real issue, and this is where vast sections of media, intelligentsia, columnists lost the plot and never even smelled the Modi coffee that was brewing. The rest as they say was history on 23^rd May 2019.

Corruption:

No, corruption has not disappeared under Modi 1.0. What did disappear were the in your face corruption, the corruption within corruption as I have always called it, the lack of honor amongst thieves and above all corruption did not become the cornerstone of policy.  The Lutyens elite as I call them – never mind if folks want to define elite in their own way to dilute the facts – had kept large sections of the society outside their gated communities so that only they and their friends feasted at the buffet. Never mind if they wasted a lot of food, they fed dogs and cats and turned even that into a photo-op. Marie Antoinette’s were in plenty and many crawled and licked their way into these gated communities thinking that 2014 would never happen, then thought that it was a aberration. But 2019 showed that the gates and walls of these gated communities were being destroyed by removing the foundation. The collapse is epic.

Everybody who had to deal with the govt esp in Delhi experienced the changes however small, the reduction in the daily headaches, frustration and helplessness. Except brokers who earlier roamed the corridors of power nobody protested. They cheered Modi.

Information was no longer power because no one had information like before. The govt was an airtight container. Yes, there can be exceptions but for the vast majority you could compete, work, stand up and lay claim to whatever you wanted without the fear that all that you saw and went through was only a charade and that the deal was already done and dusted long ago. The citizen experienced this – daily, and cheered Modi as incorruptible.

Ever since 2002 with a Cong led UPA govt for 10 years, armed with Supreme Court monitored cases not once has anyone even dared to point a finger at Modi with the word corruption. They threw many other adjectives, but even Sonia Gandhi or even the most bitter journalists like Sagarika etc never dared to charge the man as corrupt. Yet diaper wearing kids advised Rahul Gandhi and he ran a whole 2019 election campaign that Modi was corrupt. Words fail to explain the imbecility of this strategy and Modi must thank his detractors that not one of them advised the prince that he was running naked. Not even one opposition leader used this word but Cong and Rahul ran this height of stupidity campaign.  Corruption was never an issue in this election except in some deluded mind.

Armed forces, Nationalism and Rafale:

This was another self-goal of epic proportions. This was a case where your opponent didn’t even have to play the game. Cong and Rahul were repeatedly scoring goals in their own net thinking that it belonged to Modi. With nobody pointing out this folly to them, they thought they were winning like the Indian hockey team of yore with 500 goals to one against the opposition.

Let’s wind back to 2008, 26^th November when terrorists carried out the most brazen attack on Indian soil. This was no in the jungles surgical strike by terrorists aided by Pakistan. This was outright war against India in broad daylight in the heart of India. They say it’s not enough for Caesars wife to be chaste, she must also APPEAR to be chaste. A pusillanimous Cong led UPA kept talking, never even tried to show the world that Indians were angry. A victory in the 2009 elections soon after made them think that turning the other cheek was the preferred option. A flawed peace narrative was set on how to deal with terror and Pakistan.

Then in 2018 a terror attack happens, many die and the govt decides on a surgical strike and the Modi govt boldly announces this in a presser. Then another even more horrifying attack happens, the Pakistan govt thinks there will be one more presser, but the Modi govt ups the ante.  Even if you assume that only trees were bombed, fact was the Indian jets breached Pakistan airspace and went deep into that country thus daring them to use the nuclear option which was what Pakistan for decades had used as a tactic to protect itself. The bluff was called.  With an Indian pilot captured you could not even dispute whether Indian jets entered Pakistan airspace.

In both cases even if the terror attacks happened far away in Kashmir the Indian citizens were angry, outraged and wanted some retribution. Modi mollified them with his decisions.

In the midst of these terror attacks you have the men in uniform – Indian has 1.4 Million active men in uniform – and these have family, friends, friends of their friends and family, then you have those who deal with the armed forces – suppliers, vendors, service providers – many more millions as a network across India. Many of them know the abysmal state of the arms, ammunition, combat infra, etc and the vast majority of these live in the hindi heartland. They all talk and so millions in villages, towns know that their men in uniform are ill equipped. They know that not just Rafale but a lot more things are needed. Yet the opposition not only mocked them, but Rahul also objected to their getting planes!

One question that not one celebrated expert asked while they relentlessly criticized Modi on his laying claim to credit on the action by the armed forces - What if the whole thing had failed or something terribly gone wrong? Who could guarantee 100% success? With elections approaching which politician with his head in the right place would dare take such risks? Modi did and people realise this.

What did the Cong/Rahul ecosystem do? They questioned the surgical strikes, questioned the air strikes, questioned defence deals, objected to everything. They didn’t even realise the enormity of the risk that the PM had taken. 

Realising they were painting themselves into a corner they tried to change direction but that was too little, too late. The damage was done. They were speaking the exact language that Pakistan and the terrorists were using. Nothing prevented them from celebrating the actions taken, but their blind hate for Modi did them in.

The so called intelligentsia who have not met a man in uniform except in a cocktail party and think that people join the forces because they have no choice, then think that these men are prepared to lose their lives because they are given a salary – delusion is taken to stratospheric levels. These are the folks who advice the elites of the past.

So even as every journalist, columnist and social elitist went after the armed forces the people seethed with anger, families seethed with rage, the onslaught of media was relentless and so most stayed quiet. They used one forefinger to get inked, the other to press a button and then showed Cong/Rahul and the entire Lutyens ecosystem the middle finger. Nationalism was in your face, you could see it, feel it and hear it but nobody realised it.

Bottom line, nationalism, pride in your country, patriotism are no longer things to be ashamed of, which was the narrative over the past couple of decades. They are important, they matter, and god help those who mock these. 23^rd May 2019 was conclusive proof of this.

Economics – worked stupid:

The constant refrain of every other economist, journalist, columnist and activist was that there were no jobs, there was farm distress, agrarian crisis, there were no investments, no growth, the figures are fudged, the list is endless.  Something can be fact but not necessarily true. Every one of the above criticisms on the Modi govt has a logic, is an issue but what is the reality?

Maybe………

I could not sell my farm produce, but my neighbors produce did get sold.

I don’t have electricity in my home, but the power has reached the first home in the road already.

I don’t have a toilet but the guys in the next village have got one and I saw it.

I haven’t gotten a home yet but my family in the next village have got it and I went for the housewarming function.

My family still uses a chula to cook but the neighbor has an LPG gas connection.

I am seeing bridges, roads, metro rail being built at a fast pace.

The intelligent opinion makers want the voters to believe that all this happened without jobs being created, without investment, without growth. Now when folks give a narrative that nothing has happened, there are no jobs, but people see that something has happened, something is happening, activity is visibly seen and whatever the stories one may give out, nobody believes you. On the other hand, people will be eagerly waiting for when they get the benefits of progress they see.

When you see this report in an economic media and then hear the story that no jobs were created, the story just doesn’t add up. People aren’t fools like before. The performance can be less than desired but then every performance is so, isn’t it?

This simple logic eluded most critics.

There were many more blunders which I shall cover in the next blog.