Disruption - The Constant Change - Part 2
From 1947 to 1991 Nehruvian
socialism brought us to bankruptcy but also created #ISRO #NuclearTech #ArmedForces #FoodSecurity
etc which are proud jewels in our crown. There are many more jewels we can be
rightly proud of like the dams we built, the irrigation projects, the railway network
and bridges, the power plants, eradication of polio, sustaining democracy and
keeping it vibrant etc. Those who look at the glass as half empty can go
complain elsewhere.
We can passionately criticise every
PM we have had but based on their tenure, opportunity they had some have kept
the ship steady while others have disrupted it – by choice or otherwise.
The disruption of 1991 was
hated by so many including top notch industrialists, economists, politicians, officers,
etc that it caused huge fear amongst the senior populace - including myself even
though then a youngster - but the audacity of the young made them excited at
the unknown. They embraced it & today in 27 yrs we have achieved far more
than what we did in 44 yrs. Congress dumped PV Narasimha Rao for this course
correction but hailed Manmohan Singh for the exact same thing. It was PVNR the
politician who had everything to lose, the politician who had to navigate the shark
infested polity. MMS had zero risk. That a party instead of claiming credit for
its risk taking ability, its courage to bring change and disruption even while
hailing MMS choses to demand Nehruvian status quo is quixotic to say the least.
Today in a new world order technology
is disrupting everyday life as we know it. It started with the internet which
overnight broke down global barriers & created the ubiquitous global
village. Even as we speak and claim credit for having lifted significant
sections of Indian society from poverty, there is still a significant section
of the Indian population ignored but also crushed by these new technologies. These
changes however painful are aimed at bringing this segment into the mainstream.
This will not be easy but subsidy, patronage, doles are NOT the solution.
Status quo is not the solution.
As a simple example please
read this very interesting article by a Congressman. When you read what he has
to say about the disruption he helped bring about in the ’80s which in a way
was no different from what is being attempted now, it shows that times change,
people change but when disruption is attempted nobody wants to change. You will
see how the telecom revolution – just a simple telephone booth in villages
increased bank deposits by 80%. Like now even then experts kept talking of how
the life of the farmers, the poor was being affected.
Another major disruption in Indian
history was #Reservations
which lifted significant sections of the population discriminated for decades
into the mainstream. Even then the affected upper caste were hurt & reacted.
As you can see from the links below, those who protested at that time have
fashioned themselves as the champions and architects of the same today.
Indian society nursed its anger
to adjust to the new normal. The 1991 reforms subsequently helped a young India
to seize the #Infotech revolution & make us a technology
powerhouse. Likewise the changes now initiated are expected to lift up by the
boot straps the technically/digitally marginalised & get them ready for the
future. Strangely, those who leverage these technological changes for their own
upliftment instead of educating and supporting the disrupted section of society
– who interestingly are not exactly rioting or their anger spilling into the
streets – instead use the excuse of the pain caused by ignorance & lack of
opportunity as an argument against the change.
When #PVNR #MMS
brought the changes in 1991 nobody could predict our success/failure - they
were being either optimistic or pessimistic,
were embracing change or fighting for status quo. We didn’t know what the
future would bring. Today – it’s a
technology driven, data and information driven, digitised and communication driven
life’s that we will have to live in. That much can be predicted as gospel
truth.
Just as the Rs 1 shampoo
sachet brought millions of new customers into the market, how reservations
lifted millions into the mainstream these changes will bring millions into a
futuristic world. If #RuPay is the 1 Rs shampoo sachet of 2018, the others are
like Reservations of 80’s, Reforms of 90’s in 2018. The 1991 reforms were big
bang because of the crisis but these are measured and planned like reservations.
Disruption as I said earlier
is the only constant change. Look at Reliance #Jio and what it did to the
mobile telecom market. A #Colgate and its industry peers in the past who
scoffed at the backward Indian society for using Charcoal, Salt and Neem to
brush their teeth made the society switch to fancy Toothpaste only to bring Charcoal,
Salt and Neem toothpaste as scientific breakthroughs of the 21st
century. #Patanjali disrupted these FMCG companies across the spectrum with
their “natural” products and today every FMCG worth its name is discovering a
new market.
See how #Kodak shut down in
spite of having the digital technology.
See how #Uber #Ola #Flipkart #Amazon #Ebay #WhatsApp #Twitter #Facebook #Google
#AutonomousVehicles #VirtualReality and
innumerable other technologies are disrupting our lives daily as we know it. Every
one of these can contribute to even terrorism, violence but that is no excuse
to not have these technologies. These technologies can increase the income of
farmers, guide them better in their crop planning and protection, provide
opportunities for the daily wage labourers, entrepreneurs. Formal jobs & social
security however critical is not the ONLY solution for development as many seem
to think.
To go back to the Mastercard/
Visa protests the reality is that both brands suffered from the elitist
mentality. With data & resultant information being the most crucial and
important aspect in the next few decades, a RuPay kind of initiative ensures
that these are stored locally in India and lower cost is just a bonus. Data security
will be the key to the future security of a society and control over data/
processes the key to future security of a country. The next world war will be
about economic control and supremacy over data and transactions. Today global
financial transactions happen mainly through USA based network systems thus forcing
countries that may have no antagonism with a country to kow tow to USA because they
are unable to have a financial transaction without depending upon USA.
This again brings the focus
back on the various economic initiatives which directly or indirectly force
companies to localise, bring data/transaction security to India, create
opportunities for local industry and above all help India have an independent
foreign policy and protection against financial and economic blackmail. These initiatives
mean little by themselves but are the beginning to create the future where India
can defend itself against a digital war of the future.
If these two companies and
many others like them want to protect their markets they must plan for
localisation of data/ process since who knows what the future brings? What if
the Govt in the interest of privacy were to insist on local data storage as it
is already doing in many areas. Have such companies planned for giving security
to each market or still hoping that USA will play the global robocop ?
Every such caters to a large
middle class segment and forget that like always there is a lower class segment.
Rarely do companies which cater to the upper/middle segments think of or even
plan for the lower class. Then somebody steps in and disrupts this status quo
by bringing the lower class into the market. This cycle has been going on since
time immemorial and will keep going on in future. The smart companies will
adapt, change and join the change, others will act like churlish kids and hurt
themselves.
Disruption like I said is the only constant change as I began in in Part 1 of this blog.
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