Modi Govt - 1st Year opinion card - Part 1

It is the flavour of the season to write blogs/opeds on one year of the NDA but more popularly called Modi Sarkar. I couldn’t resist the temptation.

I first refer to my blog http://rvasisht.blogspot.in/2014/11/the-new-bjp-government-current-status.html  written last year after this government came to power and my views haven’t changed. So an appraisal after one year is not exactly what I would call fair in politics but that is now how life works. Appraisal is an ongoing activity.

Also no government can run by itself and is a team with ministry, party, MPs, bureaucrats etc but it is invariably defined by the leader. That is why we still speak of Nehru, Indira, Vajpayee and more recently Manmohan Singh/Sonia depending upon who is speaking. These are faces of the govt.

I divide the appraisal into 6 sections as follows.

1.       Foreign/ External  affairs

2.       Defence

3.       Economy

4.       Crisis management

5.       Parliament

6.       Communication, Politics & Others

Foreign/ External affairs:

Undoubtedly this is one area where there is a success and if I may dare say spectacular success.  Often the expectation of success is some big bang deal/agreement or resolution of some vexed issue. Rarely is that true. Such successes are the end result of a foundation built with painstaking effort over time to address various shades of opinion, the fears and distrust, the lessons from history etc.  Foreign affairs are somewhat akin to what in the engineering world is called process. Unless the system is process driven the end results cannot emerge. By process it is not protocol or paperwork but a relationship foundation that endures changes in people, incidents and unexpected storms.

Over the last few decades, especially the last 2 decades the foreign affairs strategy was more maverick, personality driven and by looking at some specific outcome – often short term couched as long term.  As a result the relationship with USA or Russia or Europe was always like the waves in sea. High, low, crash into the shores and dissipate.  It did not help that quite a few senior most officers who led this ministry joined politics and got the reputation of being wheeler dealers or arrogant and each who actually believed to be bigger than the system. I don’t question their capability but no man/woman however capable can allow the system to take back stage.

The biggest failure in this sector in the past was the utter neglect of the neighbourhood barring for Pakistan where it was reactionary and tactical than strategic and focussed. Travelling to Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Bhutan meeting government officials, businessmen, common folks like taxi drivers, hotel staff one found the abundance of gratitude that China had while India evoked anger, irritation and frustration because most of the people actually loved India. The common feeling was the big brother high handed behaviour but yet neglected.

One evening in Sri Lanka the taxi driver recalling my talk with him in the morning drove me across a road over probably a kilometre or more and what I saw was this.

 

 

The driver proudly pointed out how soon after the war China had swiftly reacted to help them while India did not do much. That Chinese took contracts for ports and other strategic projects is well known. All we recall is how India protested and expressed concerns.

Now it is also a fact that China had money whereas India did not to make such donations. The mandarins in the foreign ministry will tell you why they acted tough. But the bottom line is that if relationships were transactional with mutual respect and caring the angst would be far lower.   Also we must remember that each of these nations if at all they tolerated India it was due to the fear of how the umbilical cord would be affected, not due to love or caring or respect.

The reactions in other locations were also not very different – the bottom line being one of neglect.  And when a country neglects its neighbours, it cannot hope to succeed economically or in terms of security since you have to keep looking over your back at all times.

Modi even before he took over as PM invited all heads of state from the neighbours which was a master stroke of diplomacy. He made them feel important and for the first time wanted with respect.  Soon after taking over his first port of call was Bhutan and he followed that up with active engagement with all neighbours.

Over the last few years wherever one travelled globally the image of India had taken such a beating that one felt ashamed to talk about India. Without blaming anyone for the incidents or rapes or scams the reputation of India was so terrible that as an Indian one wondered if our leaders were so insulated that they didn’t read/hear anything about this.  Be it media or politicians or bureaucrats everybody seemed to paint India black and none cared.

On the one hand a couple doing a Asia tourist circuit tells that they skipped India because of security fears and on the other a businessman at a international conference tells me that the same set of officers meet him every year and say that his file is being cleared in 2 weeks. This man joked – my wife thinks I have a wife in India and these guys think I am jobless. Trust me it pains to hear such comments from people as an Indian.

Modi worked to change this dramatically. Media may call it hype, may call it fashion and may mock, ridicule and say whatever but the image changing exercise was long overdue and that there is success is evident.  Talking to an American I said that an issue is pending for approval from ministry and he said – “I thought this ministry was honest and fast, so why is it taking time?”  I knew he was joking because the request of this company to invest in India had ZERO progress over 3 years and had seen 75% process completed in 8 months. While getting an appointment to meet key people was a chore earlier and even then one did not get success, I was pleasantly surprised when during a crisis an email to an unknown senior officer at 1030 PM elicited a response at 1100 PM in the night and the work done by morning. I still don’t know the person.

Unless governments, investors and tourists trust you, believe in you, see action on the ground even if slow they will not want to engage with you. Modi’s biggest success is changing this image of India and motivating these above to deal with India.  Work on the ground will reflect in the results over time.

After a slightly shaky and uneasy start, including relationship with the PM and his bhakths online the minister Mrs Sushma Swaraj finally seems to have carved a niche, made peace all around and is now a true leader on who Modi can bank upon to lead the charge. She has been brilliant and is one of the poster girls of this government.

On Foreign/external affairs Modi govt deserves an 8 or 9 out of 10.