The New BJP government - current status view
The BJP government is in place since about 6 months and many, especially the strident critics of BJP are asking many a question about its performance and actions and in a way it is understandable since people are impatient. An oft repeated comment is that BJP has majority and yet no action is being taken. Let us examine it a bit more dispassionately.
Like I have written in one of my blogs much earlier, the rise and success of Modi is not just about his capability, vision, strategy, energy and hard work. It is also about the entirely avoidable failures of his opponents both within his own party and amongst the opposition with some substantial assistance from the media. Let us step back for a moment to quickly revisit this.
As I have written in my blogs http://rvasisht.blogspot.in/2013/09/why-we-are-where-we-are-part-1.html and http://rvasisht.blogspot.in/2013/09/why-we-are-where-we-are-part-2end.html the Congress worked hard to ensure they made avoidable mistakes and never bothered to correct them. In subsequent blogs I have spoken about other issues each of which contributed and helped Modi grow in stature. http://rvasisht.blogspot.in/2013/04/narendra-modi-marketing-strategy.html
Within the BJP every leader be it LK Advani, Sushma Swaraj, Arun Jaitley or anybody else you care to name, they sat on their fannies for 5 years and did not come up with a single idea, a single issue, a single action which could make them be noticed by the people. They were hopelessly out of sync with the people, they did not plan any action, did nothing to connect with the people and I would even go to the extent of saying that they had resigned to the fate of another 5 years on the opposition benches. In short every single leader in BJP had completely abdicated any thought of making a bid for power. They thought it will happen by some miracle. Left to any one of them BJP would have been finished because they would have got higher number of seats than earlier but without a leadership that connected with the people the disillusionment would have destroyed the party. There was a HUGE vacuum and nobody wanted to take risks and into this situation Modi jumped in like a breath of fresh air and the rest is history.
But is a mandate sufficient for Modi to deliver ? At this point in time NO.
Firstly Modi is an outsider to the Lutyens club that can count amongst its members a political elite that cut across party lines including from within the BJP, influential business houses, powerful media barons, social activists, bureaucrats & left of centre intellectuals who are very comfortable rubbing shoulders with the right wing capitalists. This informal club carries substantial clout and everyone is a parasite on the other with no formal shape or identity. They would do whatever it takes to protect their turf in terms of power, prosperity, poverty & policy. So Modi cannot take action without first setting his roots firmly. If not he would be demolished in the blink of an eye. If the geriatric leadership of BJP, be it Advani, Joshi or anyone else surrendered to Modi it was not only because Modi has some strengths but he was the only one with the courage to take the risks. Whatever the efficiency, capability of folks like Shivraj Chauhan, Raman Singh, Sushma they shied away from taking the risk and believing that BJP can win and get majority. It also helped tremendously that for 10 years the Congress, the opposition, media esp TV anchors gave him non stop advertisement with a single minded one man agenda. So everyone across India knew about him. Thanks to cellphones, internet, social media information about Gujarat filtered across India and most importantly people are not stupid. 800 Million below the age of 40 in India cannot be stupid, blinkered and tethered like sheep as Cong/Media thought. So the BJPs geriatric and other leadership didnt like Modi but also realised that they needed someone to go do the battle and the quid pro quo was that if he won, he gets the crown. Unfortunately for them, he won. If the geriatrics had not agreed, then in the event of a victory they would not be able to enjoy the trappings of power. So for the BJP, Modi was TINA in a manner of speaking. Now that he has the crown he needs to ensure that his own partymen dont undermine him. that will take time.
Secondly anyone who has engaged with state and central governments will know that the two are very different animals. In a state barring for some issues the bureaucracy consists of people from a common pool of language, culture, dress, food, thought even if they are from different religions/castes. Also the issues are limited to roti, kapda aur makaan as they say. In the centre all these changes and you have defence, finance, foreign policy, railways, telecom etc and Modi needs to get his finger into all the pies and taste them before he can decide what to change.
Thirdly BJP does not have a majority in the Rajya Sabha and will not have it until around 2016/2017 so Modi can usher in major changes easily only by then. Till then he needs to get his team in place across the administration, cut the legs off the geriatrics within BJP, get the sulking Lutyens club members on his side and understand the new animal that is India. India is NOT Gujarat, not by any stretch of imagination. I guess he will need at least 3 years to do this.
Fourthly however much the supporters of congress may disagree the fact is that there is a poisoned well economy left behind with a crippled administration and forget about identifying the muck, the PM cannot even see anything easily. He has to let the water settle a bit so he can start identifying the muck and weed them out.
Fifthly thanks to the Anna movement, AAP, Supreme court, CAG and a pliable CBI the administration is wholly demoralised, the people angry at politicians in general and a sense of impending gloom all around. His biggest task is to energise the people, create confidence, hope and optimism, crank the administration to work without fear and most importantly re-establish confidence in politics/politicians amongst the people.
The tragedy is that the BJP is bereft of energised, motivated leaders and there is a serious shortage of top class talent with experience. The geriatrics be it within BJP or the RSS, VHP, Bajrang Dal and what have you, routinely create stumbles in the path with their outdated ideas and dogmas. After 10 years in the wilderness they are like uncaged monkeys. Modi as PM would have to tolerate them, sometimes join them, mollycuddle them and once he has the carpet firmly under his grip he can yank it. Till then we will have to bear with the idiocy. In Gujarat for example Modi had banished the likes of Praveen Togadia from even entering Gujarat once he had got the grip on the system. Unlike those within BJP it is the allies like Shiv Sena that are testing him openly to gauge him and his strength.
There is substantial criticism about his foreign policy initiatives and globe trotting. But one must understand that he is being absolutely strategic on that. That is one arena where he will not face opposition, bias, etc and can chart a course where he can either succeed or fail. If he succeeds the internal dissent in BJP including the geriatrics will have no choice but to fall in line. Again this is a risky move to take in the first 6 months of PMship but he has got to where he is with strategically planned risks. So far he has come out with flying colours on the international arena and his detractors within BJP would find it more difficult to challenge him and the cadre/ MP's would naturally gravitate towards him which is exactly what he wants.
The fact that today he is the rockstar, the star campaigner speaks volumes of the pusillanimity of the team and that is the biggest risk for BJP. The entire hopes, expectations are riding on one man which is clearly not desirable. The Arun Jaitley's, Susha Swaraj's, Rajnath's, Manohar Parikkar's must stand up and be counted. They need to be more visible. They must demonstrate their competence with energy, passion, enthusiasm and focus on the outcomes than on keeping their feet warm. Whether they will do so is the big question.
In the meantime the peripheral organisations like RSS, VHP and the myriad other hindu organisations must realise that, while having pride in being a hindu, preserving culture, tradition etc which by themselves are fine, they need to be pragmatic and not dogmatic. Controversies like the German/Sanskrit are avoidable issues. Agreement on German language could not be signed due to constitutional rules is a fact and correct. The right way to resolve it should have to been to focus on how students desirous of learning a foreign language are given the opportunity and not decide to replace German with Sanskrit. Instead, start courses in Sanskrit and give bonus marks so students take it up. Linking two unrelated issues was a blooper. To remember what happened in Karnataka, the stupidity of the activists under a hindu religion banner attacked pubs, women etc and the result is that the Mangalore coastal belt which was the bedrock for BJP voted enmass for Congress. So much so that even in the temple town of Udupi BJP lost.
For reasons best known to himself his government has not taken some decisions that I feel they could have taken, like axing the retrospective tax and withdrawing all the cases the tax department/Govt has filed in the courts AFTER losing them in lower courts or where even the regulatory authorities have ruled them as unjustified. Most of these are in the Telecom sector and every decision of the DOT seems bizarre, egoistic and meant to be confrontative.
The biggest risk right now for Modi is the unchained monkey activities of the activists be it student organisations of BJP or others who focus on highly emotive but irrelevent issues with big fanfare and a hostile media gleefully showcases those, thus damaging BJP/Modi. Just as Congress lost by non stop avoidable stupidities the BJP also faces the same danger. History in India be it 1977, 1989, 1996 has always seen that Non Congress parties/PM's have imploded under their own contradictions. That Modi has a majority is a vital difference but the contradictions are there and how well he manages them is the challenge.
To me I would wait until 2017 to make a judgement even if there are pin pricks, disappointments and irritations. The budget of 2017 to me would be a watershed moment when all the chickens come home to roost or you see them running around. If they are running around then Modi would have delivered and put his stamp on Indian history. I remain optimistic as always.
Secondly anyone who has engaged with state and central governments will know that the two are very different animals. In a state barring for some issues the bureaucracy consists of people from a common pool of language, culture, dress, food, thought even if they are from different religions/castes. Also the issues are limited to roti, kapda aur makaan as they say. In the centre all these changes and you have defence, finance, foreign policy, railways, telecom etc and Modi needs to get his finger into all the pies and taste them before he can decide what to change.
Thirdly BJP does not have a majority in the Rajya Sabha and will not have it until around 2016/2017 so Modi can usher in major changes easily only by then. Till then he needs to get his team in place across the administration, cut the legs off the geriatrics within BJP, get the sulking Lutyens club members on his side and understand the new animal that is India. India is NOT Gujarat, not by any stretch of imagination. I guess he will need at least 3 years to do this.
Fourthly however much the supporters of congress may disagree the fact is that there is a poisoned well economy left behind with a crippled administration and forget about identifying the muck, the PM cannot even see anything easily. He has to let the water settle a bit so he can start identifying the muck and weed them out.
Fifthly thanks to the Anna movement, AAP, Supreme court, CAG and a pliable CBI the administration is wholly demoralised, the people angry at politicians in general and a sense of impending gloom all around. His biggest task is to energise the people, create confidence, hope and optimism, crank the administration to work without fear and most importantly re-establish confidence in politics/politicians amongst the people.
The tragedy is that the BJP is bereft of energised, motivated leaders and there is a serious shortage of top class talent with experience. The geriatrics be it within BJP or the RSS, VHP, Bajrang Dal and what have you, routinely create stumbles in the path with their outdated ideas and dogmas. After 10 years in the wilderness they are like uncaged monkeys. Modi as PM would have to tolerate them, sometimes join them, mollycuddle them and once he has the carpet firmly under his grip he can yank it. Till then we will have to bear with the idiocy. In Gujarat for example Modi had banished the likes of Praveen Togadia from even entering Gujarat once he had got the grip on the system. Unlike those within BJP it is the allies like Shiv Sena that are testing him openly to gauge him and his strength.
There is substantial criticism about his foreign policy initiatives and globe trotting. But one must understand that he is being absolutely strategic on that. That is one arena where he will not face opposition, bias, etc and can chart a course where he can either succeed or fail. If he succeeds the internal dissent in BJP including the geriatrics will have no choice but to fall in line. Again this is a risky move to take in the first 6 months of PMship but he has got to where he is with strategically planned risks. So far he has come out with flying colours on the international arena and his detractors within BJP would find it more difficult to challenge him and the cadre/ MP's would naturally gravitate towards him which is exactly what he wants.
The fact that today he is the rockstar, the star campaigner speaks volumes of the pusillanimity of the team and that is the biggest risk for BJP. The entire hopes, expectations are riding on one man which is clearly not desirable. The Arun Jaitley's, Susha Swaraj's, Rajnath's, Manohar Parikkar's must stand up and be counted. They need to be more visible. They must demonstrate their competence with energy, passion, enthusiasm and focus on the outcomes than on keeping their feet warm. Whether they will do so is the big question.
In the meantime the peripheral organisations like RSS, VHP and the myriad other hindu organisations must realise that, while having pride in being a hindu, preserving culture, tradition etc which by themselves are fine, they need to be pragmatic and not dogmatic. Controversies like the German/Sanskrit are avoidable issues. Agreement on German language could not be signed due to constitutional rules is a fact and correct. The right way to resolve it should have to been to focus on how students desirous of learning a foreign language are given the opportunity and not decide to replace German with Sanskrit. Instead, start courses in Sanskrit and give bonus marks so students take it up. Linking two unrelated issues was a blooper. To remember what happened in Karnataka, the stupidity of the activists under a hindu religion banner attacked pubs, women etc and the result is that the Mangalore coastal belt which was the bedrock for BJP voted enmass for Congress. So much so that even in the temple town of Udupi BJP lost.
For reasons best known to himself his government has not taken some decisions that I feel they could have taken, like axing the retrospective tax and withdrawing all the cases the tax department/Govt has filed in the courts AFTER losing them in lower courts or where even the regulatory authorities have ruled them as unjustified. Most of these are in the Telecom sector and every decision of the DOT seems bizarre, egoistic and meant to be confrontative.
The biggest risk right now for Modi is the unchained monkey activities of the activists be it student organisations of BJP or others who focus on highly emotive but irrelevent issues with big fanfare and a hostile media gleefully showcases those, thus damaging BJP/Modi. Just as Congress lost by non stop avoidable stupidities the BJP also faces the same danger. History in India be it 1977, 1989, 1996 has always seen that Non Congress parties/PM's have imploded under their own contradictions. That Modi has a majority is a vital difference but the contradictions are there and how well he manages them is the challenge.
To me I would wait until 2017 to make a judgement even if there are pin pricks, disappointments and irritations. The budget of 2017 to me would be a watershed moment when all the chickens come home to roost or you see them running around. If they are running around then Modi would have delivered and put his stamp on Indian history. I remain optimistic as always.
Comments
Sandy Shankar.