Post Election Thoughts

The elections are over and results are out. Whether people like it or not, if we believe in democracy we must accept the result with grace and move on. Modi or Rahul or Mulayam, they are not going to be sitting by your bedside to hold your hand. They are gonna throw a basket that has flowers - (some fresh, some stinking rotten and how many of each we dont know) - into the indian crowd. What we catch or what hits us we dont know. So lets wait and watch with optimism.

One thing I noticed was that after 1977 which was when my personal interest in politics started this was the first election where the majority of the citizens were emotionally involved. Everyone took pole positions, nothing mattered but politics. There was huge polarisation not just in terms of caste, community, religion but also 2 new religions as I came to term them - AM & PM - Anti Modi, Pro Modi - and the 2 new religions dominated the landscape of India drowning the traditional groups. With 72 seats in UP and 7 in Assam, many a muslim I am sure voted for modi for whatever reason. From whatever electoral arithmetic I was aware of it is well nigh impossible for BJP to get 285 seats on their own without muslim support. Let me tell you why. Before the elections the maximum number of constituencies where BJP had even a presence was only 300 out of 543. Modi took the audacious target of 272 on the logic of 2/3rd majority in this segment so he is left with 72 seats from allies but like a leader had a stretch target. BJP worked this election on the assumption that no muslim would vote for them which is borne by the fact that the number of muslims given MP tickets are few if not non existent. It was this particular strategy that made 15 year old allies like Nitish to walk away so fast and the sulk of the internal leadership like Advani and Sushma.

The next strategy was however to change the subject of debate not for any selfish dubious reasons but to change the narrative. So from the start the focus was "Vote for India, Governance, Development" with a little political rhetoric thrown in for some whistles and comedy and to address the entire nation without any (or little) focus on caste, community, religion.

Internal surveys of BJP or opinion polls also did not show up anything more than 250 at best for BJP and scraping past 272 for NDA. But BJP got 285 which makes it 95% results from its core constituency which is obviously now incorrect but instead got 35% from its non core areas which were muslim dominated. UP was in the wildest imagination at 50 out of 80 but 72 ??? So the one fact that our so called liberal intellectuals, left leaning commentators will NOT agree easily to is this fact. It is this ONE FACT that has completely unnerved the Nitishs, Stalins, Mamatas and the Left apart from other sundry AM religion folks. The entire edifice on which their whole treatise is built is now shattered. Its like discovering the world is flat.

When the name of Modi was announced I know that ministers and others in congress celebrated the 2014 elections as a walk over, a non contest. Little did they know the change in peoples mood or the change that could be achieved. So this makes the shock all the more shocking. This also explains the spate of resignations not due to morals but each needs to now get himself weighed in with the public on new rules and situations that the citizens had created and on which BJP had reaped a harvest. Was BJP aware and planned this ? I dont think so. What BJP did I feel is that they decided to change the narrative given their own idealogical baggage and initiated action accordingly and by sheer luck and providence got caught in a perfect storm and came out as winners.

Coming to this AM/PM polarisation I found it deep and wide within families, friends, colleagues, business associates and over time noticed a interesting difference in this behaviour. You had long time traditional congress/BJP supporters who I discounted. Among the rest who were suddenly very "politically involved" a large number jumped on to a idealogical bandwagon and others onto a political opinion bandwagon. 

These were not the traditional long term politically involved folks, they were those who were caught in the maelstrom of current political atmosphere.

Those who jumped into the idealogical bandwagon became either PM or AM and then rooted for BJP, AAP or Cong. With these people it was impossible to have a intelligent discussion. Everything they argued was on emotions, views that they heard/read and a hope/dream of a rainbow which their favorite would deliver. Facts, logic, economic theory, etc did not matter. Some in this group turned abusive if you did not agree with them. I know of people who denied someone a job, unfriended people on FB and such other silly behaviour. These people were very clear on one thing. What they knew, what they read/heard and felt was gospel truth and any disagreement was blasphemy. So you had a situation where a "opinion seeker" wants a discussion on say Mani Shankar Ayer or Modi or Rahul, The rules was that the debate cannot be on anything except on the positive things the "opinion seeker" has stated. Anything contrarian he deletes. It became funny to me because the "opinion seeker" wants to have free speech but curbs it himself.

Those on the political opinion bandwagon spoke issues, strategy, economics, personalities and based on the subject had differing opinions that could be termed as pro Cong, pro BJP or pro AAP and of course AM or PM. Those who were and jumped into the political opinion bandwagon (like me) had to endure a lot of frustration because based on the issue and your arguments, you got abused by the idealogical group of BJP/Cong/AAP and each thought you were against them. The AM/PM religions of course became strident and added to the frustration. It took me time but rather late I managed to start identifying whether a person was idealogical or not and then steered clear from getting drawn into political discussions. A "yes sir" was the safest route to escape so the person was happy.

Like with dogs I hope that this political heat that many find themselves in reduces and is seasonal since with elections over, its not funny anymore.